BRIEFER: Climate Change a “Top Tier Threat” in the 2022 U.S. National Security Strategy
By Sherri Goodman, Holly Kaufman, and Pauline Baudu
The Biden Administration’s new National Security Strategy (NSS), released in October 2022, elevates attention and focus on climate security beyond any prior NSS. The security risks of climate change get the attention in the NSS they have long deserved. Climate change is in fact framed as a top-tier threat on a par with geopolitical challenges from U.S. adversaries and competitors.
The NSS states:
“Of all of the shared problems we face, climate change is the greatest and potentially [most] existential for all nations. Without immediate global action during this crucial decade, global temperatures will cross the critical warming threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius after which scientists have warned some of the most catastrophic climate impacts will be irreversible.”
The world is already experiencing deadly and life-altering climate-related catastrophes (e.g, flooding in Pakistan, fires and drought in California, hurricanes in Florida) when the Earth’s global average land and ocean surface temperature has risen at least 1.1 degrees Celsius since the mid-1800s (approximately 2 degrees Fahrenheit). This NSS recognizes the unprecedented risks posed by such disasters. It therefore includes climate risks and related solutions in every aspect of national security and foreign policy, from reduction of carbon pollution to building resilience at home and abroad, and threading climate risks into every regional strategy. In this regard, the new NSS includes many of the recommendations in our Briefer of June 2021,“Climate Change in the U.S. National Security Strategy: History and Recommendations.”
The most recent NSS addresses our five key recommendations as well emerging concerns due to Russia’s war in Ukraine. These are 1) include all sectors, not just energy, including sources and sinks; 2) expand the concept of climate security to ecological security; 3) increase environmental monitoring; 4) forecast and plan for unpredictability; 5) assert strong U.S. leadership on climate and inter-related global ecological concerns, including passing aggressive climate and environmental restoration legislation and appropriating sufficient funding.
This briefer by the Center for Climate and Security focuses on these five recommendations and the relevant provisions within the NSS, concluding that the NSS both succeeds in recognizing the interdependence of all natural systems and resources, but also embodies several contradictions which should be improved. However, “the theme of the 2022 NSS is spot on: ‘No country should withhold progress on existential transnational issues like the climate crisis because of bilateral differences.'”
Read, Watch, Listen: CCS Across the Web | October 2022
Welcome to “Read, Watch, Listen” from the Center for Climate and Security (CCS), a monthly round-up highlighting some of the articles, interviews, and podcasts featuring the CCS network of experts.
In October, anticipation of the 27th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 27) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) led to increased interest in the challenges climate change poses for security worldwide. See how CCS experts tackled the various discussions this month.
Op-Ed
- Sherri Goodman (Senior Strategist) and Pauline Baudu (non-resident research assistant) contributed a 2040 scenario exploring the geopolitics of a decarbonized future to The Berlin Pulse.
Video
- Advisory Board Member, Gen. Tom Middendorp (ret.), spoke on a panel focused on the security importance of a Green Europe. (Warsaw Security Forum)
- Ahead of COP27, Director Erin Sikorsky analyzed the international security implications of recent reports from the International Energy Agency and the UN, noting that the world is progressing faster than ever towards green energy, yet greater investment is needed. (BBC News)
- Brigitte Hugh (Research Fellow), participated in an event discussing climate-related migration and the gaps in protection for those affected. (Plus Institute)
- Sikorsky spoke on a panel on climate and security with Andrea Cameron, a member of the Climate and Security Working Group (CSWG), during a symposium on evolving global security challenges hosted by the Oklahoma Aerospace & Defense Innovation Institute.
Podcast
- Director Emeritus, John Conger, discussed the difficulties for the defense sector in facing consecutive extreme weather events while trying to prepare for the future. (The Red Line)
- Conger warned that as climate resilience resources increase, especially in the military, strategy will be paramount in order to avoid maladaptation. (CDA Institute)
- Sikorsky spoke about the various climate security challenges facing China and their priorities in responding. (The Red Line)
- With the release of the new Air Force climate security plan, Conger discussed the differences and similarities between each of the military service plans. (The Defense Scoop Podcast)
Articles
- Conger highlighted the pieces of the new Air Force Climate plan which stand out to him. (E&E News)
Keep up with all the work being done by the experts from the Center for Climate and Security by following us on Twitter and LinkedIn and subscribing to our blog.
New Report: Climate Security in Mainland Southeast Asia: A Scenarios Based Assessment
By John Lichtefeld | Project managed by Brigitte Hugh | Edited by Francesco Femia
A new report from the Center for Climate and Security (CCS), Climate Security in Mainland Southeast Asia: A Scenarios Based Assessment, explores the socio-political, technological, demographic, diplomatic, military, and economic drivers that may shape the converging threats of climate change and national security in Mainland Southeast Asia. This paper posits four “climate security scenarios” built on expert input and identification of two key drivers of insecurity: state governance capacity and social and economic inequality.
Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam are extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts owing to their geographic situation and natural characteristics, as well as their relatively heterogeneous levels of internal development and governing capacities. Regional populations are already experiencing the first order physical consequences of a changing climate, including an increased frequency of extreme weather events, higher mean temperatures, decreased weather predictability, and rising sea levels.
Beyond these immediately observable consequences, an array of cascading second order effects is likely to emerge over the coming years, as the region’s inhabitants are forced to cope with unstable agricultural conditions, declining freshwater availability, and increasing energy costs. The future of Mainland Southeast Asia’s development, as well as its overall stability and security, will be determined in large part by the vulnerabilities and resilience of its constituent states, as well as the willingness of governments in the region to work together and with global partners to mitigate climate risks before consequences are imminent and unavoidable.
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Five Climate Security Angles to Consider at the Climate Change Conference in Sharm el-Sheikh
By Erin Sikorsky and Brigitte Hugh
As the 27th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change kicks off in Egypt next week, a wide range of climate change issues will be discussed. Wondering how these discussions connect to or impact security? CCS has you covered with some reading suggestions.
(more…)Featured Report
