By John Lichtefeld | Project managed by Brigitte Hugh | Edited by Francesco Femia

A new report from the Center for Climate and Security (CCS), Climate Security in Mainland Southeast Asia: A Scenarios Based Assessment, explores the socio-political, technological, demographic, diplomatic, military, and economic drivers that may shape the converging threats of climate change and national security in Mainland Southeast Asia. This paper posits four “climate security scenarios” built on expert input and identification of two key drivers of insecurity: state governance capacity and social and economic inequality.  

Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam are extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts owing to their geographic situation and natural characteristics, as well as their relatively heterogeneous levels of internal development and governing capacities. Regional populations are already experiencing the first order physical consequences of a changing climate, including an increased frequency of extreme weather events, higher mean temperatures, decreased weather predictability, and rising sea levels. 

Beyond these immediately observable consequences, an array of cascading second order effects is likely to emerge over the coming years, as the region’s inhabitants are forced to cope with unstable agricultural conditions, declining freshwater availability, and increasing energy costs. The future of Mainland Southeast Asia’s development, as well as its overall stability and security, will be determined in large part by the vulnerabilities and resilience of its constituent states, as well as the willingness of governments in the region to work together and with global partners to mitigate climate risks before consequences are imminent and unavoidable.

The report outlines six key findings for external stakeholders seeking to support climate resilience in states in the region: 

1. Social and economic inequality within states can undermine initiatives to improve climate resilience, so external stakeholders should support policies aimed at improving economic security and mitigating inequality as part of their climate-focused efforts; 
2. Climate risks are complex and transnational in nature, so diplomatic and security service cooperation – among states in the region and with global partners – will be critical to improving overall regional resilience; 
3. Efforts should be made to coordinate cooperation on climate risk mitigation via ASEAN and other regional fora to help overcome the challenges posed by an increasingly antagonistic relationship between Washington and Beijing; 
4. Regional security services should be engaged to take into account their expertise, enable cooperation and joint planning, and to encourage the responsible and humane use of their considerable political clout to promote domestic policy reforms that support climate resilience;
5. Technical data sharing and capacity building have been well-received in the region and could and provide an opening for engagement with security services that are often hesitant to meet with external stakeholders on sensitive matters; and
6. Amid a growing crackdown on civil society in states across the region, external stakeholders should encourage governments to respect and partner with domestic civil society and non-governmental organizations that promote climate resilience.

Direct inquiries to: Andrew Facini, afacini [at] csrisks.org