Feeds:
Posts
Comments

Secretary Kerry Declares Climate Change a “Fundamental Security Issue”

May 15, 2013 by Caitlin Werrell and Francesco Femia

Secretary_Kerry_Meets_With_Swedish_Prime_Minister_(4)U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is in Stockholm, Sweden to meet with Swedish Prime Minister Reinfeldt, and to attend the Arctic Council’s Ministerial Meeting. Yesterday, May 14th, Secretary Kerry made remarks with Prime Minister Reinfeldt that included a very strong statement on the security risks of climate change. His remarks follow the release of the White House’s National Strategy for the Arctic Region, that also included points on the risks of climate change to the region. The full remarks and video of the event are here, and the points on security are below:

I also want to say that we appreciate Sweden’s partnership because these challenges in Europe and North Africa and Central Asia simply do not belong to one nation; they’re shared by all of us and they affect all of us. And at the top of that list of shared challenges which does not get enough attention, and it’s one of the principal reasons that I came here today to share bilateral meetings with the Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister but also will travel on to Kiruna to take part in the Arctic Council, a principal challenge to all of us of life and death proportions is the challenge of climate change…

…And we come here to Kiruna with a great understanding of the challenge to the Arctic as the ice melts, as the ecosystem is challenged, the fisheries, and the possibilities of increased commercial traffic as a result of the lack of ice raises a whole set of other issues that we need to face up to. So it’s not just an environmental issue and it’s not just an economic issue. It is a security issue, a fundamental security issue that affects life as we know it on the planet itself, and it demands urgent attention from all of us.

Posted in Arctic, climate and security | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

White House Releases National Strategy for the Arctic Region

May 10, 2013 by Caitlin Werrell and Francesco Femia

031000-N-XXXXB-001The White House Office of the Press Secretary has just issued a statement announcing the release of a National Strategy for the Arctic Region.  The strategy includes significant attention to the role climate change plays in regional security and cooperation. Specifically, the strategy outlines the “lines of effort” as: 1. Advance United States Security Interests, 2. Pursue Responsible Arctic Region Stewardship, 3. Strengthen International Cooperation. Attention to climate change risks is strewn throughout the document. Here are some notable excerpts:

Even as we work domestically and internationally to minimize the effects of climate change, the effects are already apparent in the Arctic. Ocean resources are more readily accessible as sea ice diminishes, but thawing ground is threatening communities as well as hindering land-based activities, including access to resources. Diminishing land and sea ice is altering ecosystems and the services they provide. As an Arctic nation, the United States must be proactive and disciplined in addressing changing regional conditions and in developing adaptive strategies to protect its interests. An undisciplined approach to exploring new opportunities in this frontier could result in significant harm to the region, to our national security interests, and to the global good…

The U.S. approach to the Arctic region must reflect our values as a nation and as a member of the global community. We will approach holistically our interests in promoting safety and security, advancing economic and energy development, protecting the environment, addressing climate change and respecting the needs of indigenous communities and Arctic state interests…

For all of the opportunities emerging with the increasing accessibility and economic and strategic interests in the Arctic, the opening and rapid development of the Arctic region presents very real challenges. On the environmental front, reduced sea ice is having an immediate impact on indigenous populations as well as on fish and wildlife. Moreover, there may be potentially profound environmental consequences of continued ocean warming and Arctic ice melt. These consequences include altering the climate of lower latitudes, risking the stability of Greenland’s ice sheet, and accelerating the thawing of the Arctic permafrost in which large quantities of methane – a potent driver of climate change – as well as pollutants such as mercury are stored. Uncoordinated development – and the consequent increase in pollution such as emissions of black carbon or other substances from fossil fuel combustion – could have unintended consequences on climate trends, fragile ecosystems, and Arctic communities. It is imperative that the United States proactively establish national priorities and objectives for the Arctic region…

The United States in the Arctic will assess and monitor the status of ecosystems and the risks of climate change and other stressors to prepare for and respond effectively to environmental challenges…

The United States takes the chairmanship of the Arctic Council in 2015. Having a National Strategy for the Arctic Region in place is important for responsible engagement and leadership in the region. The full strategy is available here. And here is the statement from the White House Office of the Press Secretary.

Posted in climate and security | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Friedman On Water and Climate Security in Yemen

May 9, 2013 by Caitlin Werrell and Francesco Femia

Village_well_YemenTom Friedman with the New York Times recently penned an insightful article on the intersection of water, climate change, human security and broader security concerns in Yemen.  Most of the time Yemen shows up in the international news, it is about drone strikes on Al Qaida targets, or most recently, the release of abducted foreigners. Beneath all of this, Friedman points out, is the persistent insecurity over water resources.

Citing Yemen’s former minister of water and environment, Abdul Rahman al-Eryani:

One of the most threatened aquifers in Yemen is the Radaa Basin, he added, “and it is one of the strongholds of Al Qaeda.” In the north, on the border with Saudi Arabia, the Sadah region used to be one of the richest areas for growing grapes, pomegranates and oranges. “But they depleted their aquifer so badly that many farms went dry,” said Eryani, and this created the environment for the pro-Iranian Houthi sect to recruit young, unemployed farm laborers to start a separatist movement.

Regarding action on water stress and climate change, and next steps for Yemen’s future, Friedman notes:

The great American environmentalist Dana Meadows, when asked if it was too late to do anything about climate change, used to say, “We have exactly enough time — starting now.” The Arab world has exactly enough time — starting now. If people do not stop fighting with each other over dead ideologies and sectarian differences and focus instead on overcoming their deficits of knowledge, freedom and women’s empowerment — as the U.N. Arab Human Development Report urged — there is no hope. As Qaid suggested, in Yemen those old ideologies are luxuries now. It is just about water.

The article, Postcards from Yemen, is worth a read as it sheds much-needed light on the complex interplays of water, climate change and culture in a country that will likely appear more and more often in the headlines.

For more on the topic, here and here are a few previous posts from this blog.

Posted in climate and security | Tagged , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Is Climate Change Driving a New South Pacific Security Architecture?

May 8, 2013 by Caitlin Werrell and Francesco Femia

Sealift Solomon IslandsThis is a cross-post by Nicholas Burke from Relief Analysis Wire.

Last week, an inaugural meeting of South Pacific defense ministers took place in Tonga–an initiative spearheaded by Australia. Present were Tonga, Papua New Guinea, Australia, New Zealand, France, Chile, and (as an observer), the United States. Front and center on the agenda was collaboration on humanitarian and disaster relief operations, maritime surveillance, and plans to conduct joint exercises throughout the region.

Immediately following these meetings, the New Zealand Herald is reporting that Australia and New Zealand are looking to strengthen their strategic ties. The key driver of this mutual concern that a variety of problems are escalating in the South Pacific islands.

Australia recently briefed its new defense White Paper to New Zealand, in the midst of its completion of protracted engagements in East Timor and the Solomon Islands. The new strategic doctrine conveys marked concern about regional stability in general.

Underlying issues in the South Pacific such as governance, crime, and high unemployment are being “compounded” by the effects of climate change, according to the White Paper. The Pacific Islands’ limited capacities to face a multitude of threats without the help of regional powers will be present for “decades” to come according to the assessment and the Herald.

The White Paper suggests that New Zealand is the nation Australia is most likely to collaborate with in the South Pacific, and that both nations must “align [their] defense postures” and are “committed to enhancing peace and security in the region.”

The White Paper’s strategic doctrine is also explicit about the potential threat of climate change and resulting potential humanitarian operations:

The inundation of low-lying regions, more frequent and severe natural disasters and shifts in rainfall patterns would lead to loss of agricultural production in some areas and potentially large-scale human migration. The combination of the effects of climate change and resource pressures will increase the risk of insecurity and conflict, particularly internal instability in fragile states, many of which have increasingly large populations in areas that will be affected by climate change. These factors, taken together, point to an increasing demand for humanitarian assistance, disaster relief and stabilisation operations over coming decades.

Over the past several years, the Pacific Islands have faced a series of weather-related disasters and the threat of risings seas. One of the strongest La Nina episodes on record was a factor in three cyclones that struck Vanuatu in 2011 and triggered an agricultural crisis in the nation’s southern province. That year, severe drought also ravaged Tuvalu as part of the same extreme La Nina episode. Last year, Fiji suffered the worst flooding in its recorded history, and powerful Cyclone Evan caused serious damage in both Fiji and Samoa.

Tuvalu and Kiribati are just two nations that are also battling the imminent threat of sea level rise, with Kiribati even considering the potential resettlement of its entire population to Fiji.

The international community, Australia, and New Zealand have been engaged in some degree with all of these issues.

With New Zealand observers participating for the first time alongside Australia and the U.S. in July’s Talisman Sabre exercise in the Coral Sea, one wonders if this is just the beginning of deepening Australia-New Zealand strategic cooperation in one of the most climate vulnerable regions in the world.

[Via: New Zealand Herald, Australian Department of Defense, Relief Analysis Wire/Environmental Graffiti, Relief Analysis Wire/InterAction, Relief Analysis Wire/AccuWeather, Australian Broadcasting Company/ReliefWeb; Image: US Navy Sealift in the Solomon Islands)

Posted in climate and security | Tagged , , , | Leave a Comment »

A Number for Your National Security Risk Assessments: 400

May 7, 2013 by Caitlin Werrell and Francesco Femia

Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide-enThe Keeling Curve, a graph which shows how much carbon dioxide is in the atmosphere, indicates that the amount will exceed 400 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 very soon. The number, by itself, is not significantly different from 399ppm, which is where we are now, or 401ppm, where we will be soon enough. However, in context, it is a very important number. And it is important not just for climatologists, but also for those concerned with national and global security.

There are two main reasons why 400 is important:

  • It is part of an upward trend that is set to rapidly continue, and have severe long-term consequences. CO2 is a greenhouse gas that remains in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. So the numbers that come in today (monitored daily online) are likely to stick around for a while – barring an unforeseen Manhattan Project- scale technological advancement capable of scrubbing CO2 from the atmosphere on a massive scale (and we certainly can’t depend on that). The IPCC’s number for a somewhat safe amount is 350ppm, and the number to avoid exceeding is 450ppm. The current reading is worryingly close to the danger zone, and if emissions continue at the current rate, the world could reach the 450ppm mark “within a few decades,” according to geochemist Ralph Keeling. And we have not yet even experienced the full climatic changes that may result from existing CO2 emissions.

    Furthermore, given that these numbers are abstract numerical markers on the upward trajectory of global averages, they do not paint a picture of the differentiated impact of CO2 emissions across the globe – which depend on regional variances in climate and geography, as well as social, political and economic systems.  In some places, the damage is already being done. The Arctic and Small Island Nations are already showing signs of significant change from sea ice melt and sea level rise. Recent studies have linked climate change to extreme drying in the Mediterranean, North Africa, the Middle East, as well as Russia, Central Asia, Australia and the United States. These changes are stirring up new geopolitical conditions, and contributing to the widespread loss of livelihoods in both fragile and developed nations across the globe. As CO2 increases, so do the potential risks to human societies. In some parts of the world, 400 may bring societies a step closer to instability.

  • It is unprecedented in human history. While there is some mild debate over how many ppm are “too many,” whether or not we’ve already reached that level, or when we will reach it, one fact that cannot be disputed is that this is the first time in human history that there has been this level of CO2 in the atmosphere.  And in fact, we passed that threshold a while ago. According to the IPCC’s 4th assessment report, the amount of atmospheric CO2 in 2005 (379 ppm) far exceeded the natural range of the past 650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm).

In the words of Carnegie Institution ecologist Chris Feld, reaching 400ppm “is an indication that we’re in a different world.” A different world indeed – a world with risks that we as humans may not have ever experienced before, and may be unprepared to manage. In this world, lessons from history may have a limited utility, and may include a proliferation of former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s infamous “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns.”

In light of reaching this unprecedented marker in human history, we have decided to resurrect the very first post on the Center’s blog, from the summer of 2011:

We know with a very high degree of certainty the likelihood of climate change and its expected impacts. We know, for example, that the seas will rise, that 50% of the Earth’s population lives in coastal zones, and that by 2025 that number will rise to seventy-five percent. We know that global agriculture production faces increased floods and droughts, which will disrupt growing patterns that have been cultivated over thousands of years, severely diminishing our ability to feed a global population expected to reach 9 billion by 2050.  We know that climate change will impact resource availability, such as freshwater, compelling people to move to new locations, within and across national boundaries. We know that such dynamics can result in conflict and violence.

Despite the certainty of these risks, the global response has been feeble at best.  In short, we were unprepared. Climate change at this rate and scale is unprecedented in human history.  Our governance structures, from the familial to the international, which are responsible for responding to risk and maintaining our security, have evolved during a period of relative climate certainty. Cities, trade agreements, economies, national boundaries, political systems, security strategies, have all been built upon a stable climate.

In a world with an unstable climate, all of these structures will have to prepare.  An unprecedented risk needs an unprecedented response.

Posted in climate and security | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Military leaders: rising sea level a threat to Virginia-North Carolina

May 6, 2013 by Caitlin Werrell and Francesco Femia

120620-N-RY232-371Last Monday, a sobering panel discussion was held in Norfolk, Virginia regarding the threat posed by sea level rise to both national security, and the Hampton Roads region – an area which comprises Virginia Beach, Norfolk-Newport News, and the Virginia-North Carolina metropolitan area. The panel consisted of U.S. Navy Vice Admiral Philip Cullom, Admiral Larry Baucom, USN (ret), Captain Joe Bouchard, USN (ret.), Jonathan Powers, Iraq war veteran and the White House’s Federal Environmental Executive, and Ben McFarlane of the Hampton Roads Planning Commission

The Hampton Roads region is significant not only for its hundreds of miles of beaches, which contribute significantly to the economies of Virginia and North Carolina, but also for a harbor that houses “Navy, Coast Guard, Air Force, NASA, Marine Corps, and Army facilities, shipyards, [and] coal piers.” Consequently, sea level rise along the lines of recent projections would be devastating for both the economy of the region (and economies outside the region that are fed by the harbor), and the significant assets of the U.S. military in the area – which incidentally, provide thousands of jobs.

It is no small wonder that military leaders, as well as those responsible for keeping the region’s economy thriving, are concerned about the effects of climate change.

As reported by the Virginia-Pilot:

It is a scenario that is particularly troubling to the Navy because of its enormous footprint in the area, said Rear Adm. Philip Hart Cullom, deputy chief of naval operations for fleet readiness and logistics…

Hampton Roads is threatened by rising sea level, increased flooding and more frequent natural disasters, said Joe Bouchard, a retired Navy captain and a former commanding officer of Norfolk Naval Station.

Projections of those effects have worsened in the past five years, Bouchard said.

“All the major military bases in Hampton Roads are threatened by sea-level rise to one degree or another,” he said. “Keep in mind that federal spending is about 48 percent of our economy and the vast majority of that is defense spending. … That means the economy of Hampton Roads is threatened.”

When asked for solutions, McFarlane of the Hampton Roads Planning Commission offered three:

- Adapt. Build such structures as seawalls, floodgates and levees, which are expensive and potentially damaging to the environment.

- Get used to living with more water. Put houses on stilts and flood-proof ground floors.

- Retreat. Move people out of the most vulnerable areas and prohibit building there.

Jonathan Powers, the White House’s Federal Environmental Executive, asserted that “in the absence of action by Congress,…the president will act on his own.”

For the full video of the event, click here.

Posted in climate and security | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

White House Briefed on National Security Risks of an Ice-free Arctic

May 3, 2013 by Caitlin Werrell and Francesco Femia

??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????The White House heard from representatives from the Pentagon, NASA, the U.S. National Science Foundation and the Department of Homeland Security this week on the national security risks of an ice-free Arctic.

Nafeez Ahamed provides a thorough report of the briefing, and how it may indicate the Administration’s increasing concern over climate change as a domestic and international security threat:

National security officials have taken an increasing interest in the destabilizing impacts of climate change — particularly its potential to generate instability or conflict as nations compete for more limited resources like food and water.

Possibly driven by the accelerated Arctic melt process, extreme weather events over the last few years — from record-breaking heat waves and droughts in the United States and Russia to snowstorms and cold weather in northern Europe – have affected harvests, impacting global food production and contributing to civil unrest.

The West Australian also reported:

At the White House meeting…scientists have been asked to come up with scenarios that will inform research program on changes in the Arctic and the impacts on Arctic ecosystems. The Arctic is thought to be warming twice as fast as NASA’s calculation of a 0.8C rise in temperatures globally since 1880.

There are a number of existing U.S. government documents warning of the risks of a melting arctic, including the Naval Studies Board’s “National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces,” the U.S. Navy’s Arctic Road Map, and more recently, the Climate Change Adaptation Roadmaps from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Department of Defense (DOD), which both include references to the national security risks of a melting Arctic.

The DHS and DOD Climate Change and Adaptation Roadmaps provide a good compliment to the Administration’s National Science and Technology Council’s five-year Arctic Research Plan, released in Feb. 2013, which was aimed at better understanding and predicting Arctic environmental changes. As noted on the White House blog, the Arctic Research Plan:

Provide[s] a roadmap for unprecedented collaboration between agencies on high impact research activities that will provide a solid scientific basis for on-the-ground progress in the Arctic. It also complements a number of steps being taken by the Administration to enable data-driven and science-based stewardship in the Arctic region, including the recent launch of regionally-focused data communities on ocean.data.gov.

There are clearly national security risks and opportunities for U.S. leadership in a melting Arctic – a dynamic that was fully recognized by the George W. Bush Administration as well. But additional actions will need to be taken in order to reduce these risks, and take advantage of opportunities – particularly as the United States takes over the chairmanship of the Arctic Council in 2015, and will want to come to the table with some successes under its belt. For example, ratification of the UN Law of the Sea Convention (UNCLOS), universally supported by the United States military and U.S. Chamber of Commerce, will be a critical prerequisite for more robust and constructive U.S. leadership in the Arctic region. And in order for the U.S. military, the Department of Homeland Security, and the State Department to do their jobs in managing risks and opportunities in the region, modest but additional resources will be needed to fund the core elements of an Arctic strategy.

Nonetheless, it is very encouraging to see the Administration elevate its interest in the security implications of a melting Arctic. U.S. leadership is certainly needed in this space.

Posted in climate and security | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Older Posts »

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 956 other followers