The Center for Climate & Security

By Tom Ellison

This op-ed was originally published on March 5, 2026 by Sustainable Views

The widening US and Israeli air war with Iran is many things, including a human tragedy, a risky turning point for the region, and another example of President Donald Trump’s military adventurism. But with the conflict playing out at the beating heart of the oil and gas economy, it also reminds us that reliance on fossil fuels is an unacceptable security risk. It’s a risk baked into our geopolitics that will continue to grow until countries move away from fossil fuels entirely, rather than just diversifying their sources.

Already, Iranian threats have largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, which hosts about 20% of the world’s oil and gas flows and is one of Tehran’s few ways to externalize the conflict’s costs. Ships are piling up or rerouting, deterred by Iranian threats and uninsurability. Qatar, the world’s second-largest natural gas exporter, shut down exports amid Iranian attacks, including on a single plant that accounted for 20% of global LNG supply. Four days in, oil and gas prices jumped by 9% and 50%, respectively. What comes next is uncertain, but in the very plausible event of a drawn-out conflict, prices will rise further. The effects may also spill into food, which relies on fertilizer tied to natural gas and its supply chains, risking price spikes that are a recipe for further instability. 

The crisis illustrates the growing geopolitical risks of relying on fossil fuels, which require the unimpeded 24/7 operation of intricate supply chains and transnational markets. In contrast to fossil fuels, wind and solar offer autonomous electricity production once constructed. They do not rely on continuously operating pipelines, ports, or shipping lanes that can be switched off, blockaded, or hit by a hurricane. There is no Strait of Hormuz or Nordstream II for clean energy.That’s not to say clean energy is risk-free. No system is. But the challenges of clean energy, including China’s dominance of key material and mineral supply chains, are more manageable than those of fossil fuels. Cutting off material inputs only affects future construction, largely via pricing. It doesn’t risk people freezing in winter. Concern over cyber vulnerabilities in Chinese goods is a challenge, but it is not unique to clean energy. The highest-risk pieces of hardware can be prioritized for additional safeguards, with a solar panel posing less risk than an input to sensitive military components. And in the young clean energy sector, innovation in batteries, recycling, and alternative minerals can reduce the leverage afforded by the materials China dominates.

By Noah Fritzhand

Among its many implications, the US-Israeli war against Iran exposes energy risks for countries reliant on fossil fuel imports from the Middle East, underscoring the energy security benefits of clean energy. The widening conflict, including the blockage of the oil and gas chokepoint at the Strait of Hormuz, is potentially the most disruptive conflict to the energy market since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. With oil and gas prices spiking and no clear end to the conflict, market analysts predict potential long-term disruptions to the energy supply chain, which would add further uncertainty to an already unstable geopolitical situation. Countries that react to this moment by seeking to stockpile or shift suppliers of oil and LNG simply exchange short-term energy security for long-term vulnerability, prolonging their exposure to geopolitical shocks and failing to meet their increasing energy demands. 

Countries in East Asia, such as South Korea, Japan, and China, are especially reliant on oil and LNG from the Middle East, the loss of which will have significant impacts on their economies. In contrast, the falling prices, improved resilience, and strategic autonomy offered by renewable sources make them a secure option for countries looking to minimize their exposure to risk. 

For more, the Center for Climate and Security has hosted “Renewable Energy is National Security” communities of practice across East and Southeast Asia, and you can read outputs from these convenings below:

• Protecting Korea’s National Security with Renewable Energy
• The interrelation of climate change and national security, The Korea Times
• The National Security Rationale for Japan’s Transition to Renewable Energy
• Protecting Japan’s National Security with Renewable Energy
• Indonesia’s Climate Security and Renewable Energy Nexus: A Landscape Assessment