Event Summary: Climate Change, Security and the New ISAB Study, “New Security Challenges”
Last week, The Center for Climate and Security had the honor of partnering with the US State Department’s International Security Advisory Board (ISAB) to host a conversation on the new security challenges posed by climate change, as featured in a recent report by the ISAB.
Ambassador Bonnie Jenkins, Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, opened the discussion with an explanation of the role of the ISAB and how her office is integrating non-traditional security issues into its work. ISAB Vice-Chair and report lead Sherri Goodman (and also Chair of the Board at the Council on Strategic Risks) followed, outlining the report’s key climate security findings, and fellow ISAB members shared their perspectives as well. Finally, Kate Guy of the Office of the Special Presidential Envoy for Climate Change and Swathi Veeravalli from the National Security Council provided updates on their offices’ climate security activities and how they intersect with the report recommendations.
This report is notable not only for what it says about climate security but also for who is saying it. To have the Arms Control and International Security office at the State Department, known as the “T Bureau,” argue for greater integration of climate considerations into what has traditionally been considered a “hard security” portfolio helps shift the conversation on this critical topic.
The report includes an explicit admonition that the State Department is not yet prepared for the array of future climate security risks, stating: “While the Department of State has elevated climate change in many respects, it is not yet prepared or organized for ways in which climate disruptions are exacerbating resource scarcity, driving competition, and fundamentally reshaping 21st century diplomacy.”
Additionally, the report provides concrete, illustrative examples of how the strengths of the T Bureau—understanding and analyzing signaling, deterrence, and detection regarding nuclear capabilities—also matter for addressing climate security challenges. For example, the report included a Taiwan case study, noting that “The rapid onset of climate extremes introduces weather variables that add significant challenge and uncertainty to US planning for the defense of Taiwan as well as for the continuity of certain national security-critical supply chains.” It explains how extreme weather could knock out communications platforms asymmetrically, leading to potential misperceptions by the United States, mainland China, or the Taiwanese government. Separately, the report explores how tools and methodologies for understanding and monitoring nuclear proliferation could be used to monitor geoengineering interventions, particularly Solar Radiation Management (SRM) interventions.
Overall, the report makes a strong case for better integration and mainstreaming climate considerations across all areas of US national security. As participants in the roundtable discussion noted, taking such action will require cultural shifts and strong leadership within the State Department.
The Center for Climate and Security thanks the ISAB and Ambassador Jenkins for taking the first steps toward making such changes.
Pest and Pathogen Threats to Food Security
By Molly Gallagher, Ecological Security Fellow
Executive Summary
Pests and pathogens impacting essential agricultural products pose a significant threat to the future of food security. Critical food sources are at risk worldwide due to pest and pathogen attacks.1 Globalization increases the risk of invasive pest and pathogen species, which can rapidly take hold in regions with crop plants already subject to significant climate stressors. The interacting impacts of climate change and globalization can be unpredictable and are expected to cause additional strain on the food supply.2
Over the next two decades, we must intervene to protect the global food supply from pests and pathogens. Technologies to detect their presence are needed. These early warning systems may be applied during the growth phase of crop plants and should also be developed for screening imports. Standoff and low-cost detection should be deployed domestically and internationally to enhance surveillance. Furthermore, we must invest in basic research under a One Health framework to enable improved analytics and threat forecasting to guide optimal mitigation efforts. Finally, it is critical that we strengthen relationships across regions to coordinate quarantine and control efforts long-term.
BRIEFER: Litio 2040: Sustainably Developing Mexico’s Lithium from Ground to Grid
By Keith Lema, Ecological Security Fellow
Note: This briefer was drafted prior to the June 2024 Presidential Election in Mexico. The views expressed are the author’s own and not necessarily those of the U.S. Government
Executive Summary
In recent years, Mexico’s outgoing President, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), has sought to develop lithium resources in the state of Sonora. AMLO and many Mexican policymakers hope to leverage lithium to profit from the rapidly growing value chain of clean energy minerals and technology. Lithium-ion batteries, electric vehicles, and other clean energy technologies are attracting skyrocketing sums of capital. Global clean energy investment surpassed investment for fossil fuels in 2016 and by 2023, clean energy investment exceeded that for fossil fuels by over half a trillion dollars.1 This precipitous increase means that Mexico’s lithium reserves may become a crucial asset. However, to harness this resource responsibly, the nation must navigate the delicate balance between economic development and ecological security concerns.
Monetizing this resource is more complex than some Mexican policymakers would hope. Three issues should give Mexican policymakers pause. First, unregulated lithium mining can threaten local ecosystems through pollution and water loss. Second, drug cartels have a track record of co-opting other natural resources in Mexico to diversify their revenue streams. Thus, the potential wealth of lithium production could create security risks for Sonoran residents or workers operating lithium mines. Third, it will take a long time to produce lithium at commercial scale. There are significant economic risks that mining projects could fail to become cost-competitive. If Mexico and Sonoran residents face some ecological damage as a cost of lithium extraction, they should at least have a clear path to shared economic benefits. With a consequential Presidential Election in 2024, now is the time for Mexican political leaders to carefully analyze their options regarding lithium mining and ensure minimal damage to ecological security.
In this context, political leaders in Mexico and community leaders in Sonora should consider the following recommendations:
- Bring Lithium to the Public Square: A new president will be elected in June 2024. Both candidates should develop specific proposals for lithium development as part of a broader clean energy strategy and debate them.
- A Whole-of-Government Approach to Cartels: Cartel influence, violence, and corruption are transnational problems that Mexican leaders will still wrestle with in 2040. Stakeholders in Sonora’s lithium endowment must consider steps to thwart cartel efforts to profit from this critical mineral.
- Shared Benefits and Continual Stakeholder Consultation: Any future mining should adhere to international conventions for Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC). Given the poor track record of mining companies in the region, Federal authorities should establish and maintain a monitoring system to analyze water quality and quantity in the local watershed.
The US Department of Defense’s Role in Integrating Climate Change into Security Planning
This piece by Sherri Goodman and Max Nathanson was originally published at the New Security Beat.
The recent floods and landslides in Brazil, displacing almost 100,000 and killing at least 100, reminds us that climate change-fueled extreme weather, combined with an intense El Niño, is a deadly combination. Governor Eduardo Leite of the southern Brazilian province, Rio Grande du Sol, described the devastation the region was subjected to as “unprecedented.” As President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva noted: “We need to stop running behind disasters. We need to see in advance what calamities might happen and we need to work.”
How should the US government integrate these climate change concerns into its defense and security planning? More specifically, what roles should the Department of Defense (DoD) play in this overall effort, and how should DoD integrate within the overall government effort?
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