The Center for Climate & Security

By Tom Ellison

This op-ed was originally published on March 5, 2026 by Sustainable Views

The widening US and Israeli air war with Iran is many things, including a human tragedy, a risky turning point for the region, and another example of President Donald Trump’s military adventurism. But with the conflict playing out at the beating heart of the oil and gas economy, it also reminds us that reliance on fossil fuels is an unacceptable security risk. It’s a risk baked into our geopolitics that will continue to grow until countries move away from fossil fuels entirely, rather than just diversifying their sources.

Already, Iranian threats have largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, which hosts about 20% of the world’s oil and gas flows and is one of Tehran’s few ways to externalize the conflict’s costs. Ships are piling up or rerouting, deterred by Iranian threats and uninsurability. Qatar, the world’s second-largest natural gas exporter, shut down exports amid Iranian attacks, including on a single plant that accounted for 20% of global LNG supply. Four days in, oil and gas prices jumped by 9% and 50%, respectively. What comes next is uncertain, but in the very plausible event of a drawn-out conflict, prices will rise further. The effects may also spill into food, which relies on fertilizer tied to natural gas and its supply chains, risking price spikes that are a recipe for further instability. 

The crisis illustrates the growing geopolitical risks of relying on fossil fuels, which require the unimpeded 24/7 operation of intricate supply chains and transnational markets. In contrast to fossil fuels, wind and solar offer autonomous electricity production once constructed. They do not rely on continuously operating pipelines, ports, or shipping lanes that can be switched off, blockaded, or hit by a hurricane. There is no Strait of Hormuz or Nordstream II for clean energy.That’s not to say clean energy is risk-free. No system is. But the challenges of clean energy, including China’s dominance of key material and mineral supply chains, are more manageable than those of fossil fuels. Cutting off material inputs only affects future construction, largely via pricing. It doesn’t risk people freezing in winter. Concern over cyber vulnerabilities in Chinese goods is a challenge, but it is not unique to clean energy. The highest-risk pieces of hardware can be prioritized for additional safeguards, with a solar panel posing less risk than an input to sensitive military components. And in the young clean energy sector, innovation in batteries, recycling, and alternative minerals can reduce the leverage afforded by the materials China dominates.