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A new report from the Center for Climate and Security (CCS), Climate Security in Mainland Southeast Asia: A Scenarios Based Assessment, explores the socio-political, technological, demographic, diplomatic, military, and economic drivers that may shape the converging threats of climate change and national security in Mainland Southeast Asia. This paper posits four “climate security scenarios” built on expert input and identification of two key drivers of insecurity: state governance capacity and social and economic inequality.
Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam are extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts owing to their geographic situation and natural characteristics, as well as their relatively heterogeneous levels of internal development and governing capacities. Regional populations are already experiencing the first order physical consequences of a changing climate, including an increased frequency of extreme weather events, higher mean temperatures, decreased weather predictability, and rising sea levels.
Beyond these immediately observable consequences, an array of cascading second order effects is likely to emerge over the coming years, as the region’s inhabitants are forced to cope with unstable agricultural conditions, declining freshwater availability, and increasing energy costs. The future of Mainland Southeast Asia’s development, as well as its overall stability and security, will be determined in large part by the vulnerabilities and resilience of its constituent states, as well as the willingness of governments in the region to work together and with global partners to mitigate climate risks before consequences are imminent and unavoidable.(more…)
“We have got to get busy deploying dollars and energy and ingenuity to tackle the problem,” said Gillian Caldwell, Chief Climate Officer at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) at a recent Center for Climate and Security (CCS) event: “U.S. Climate Security Investments: Changing Plans into Actions” (watch the whole event below)(more…)
By Dr. Duncan Depledge, Matt Ince, Olivia Lazard, and Erin Sikorsky
Climate change is altering the physical and strategic context in which national and international security is pursued. But it is not just increased climate variability and its socio-economic consequences that could compound instability and violent conflict in the future. The scale of transformation required to mitigate and adapt to the climate crisis, as well as the speed and orderliness with which any such transition must occur, carries additional risk and demands more attention from scholars and policymakers. That was the
conclusion of a virtual roundtable organized by the UK Ministry of Defence’s Climate Change & Sustainability Directorate and Loughborough University in May 2022, led by the authors of this briefer. The following draws from the roundtable conversations.
Read the full briefer here.
June 7, 2022 — Today the Expert Group of the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS Expert Group) launched a new report, Decarbonized Defense: The Need for Clean Military Power in the Age of Climate Change, the first in a series of papers comprising the third annual World Climate and Security Report. The paper warns that militaries must accelerate efforts toward net zero to achieve a win-win-win: minimize fossil fuel-related operational vulnerabilities, undermine petro-dictators like Vladimir Putin, and combat climate change.
The report reveals that there are high operational costs of continued fossil fuel use by militaries, and recommends that security leaders across NATO and the EU seize opportunities to ensure that low carbon considerations and energy efficiency standards are key factors in new procurement processes, research and innovation. The authors note that the war in Ukraine is a turning point for sustainable change, and that ministries and departments of defense can lead broader technological change across society by creating enough demand signals to spur innovation and enable the private sector to bring low-carbon solutions to the market.(more…)