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Establishing an Ecological Security Framework for Southeast Asia
By John Lichtefeld, Ecological Security Fellow
Edited by Andrea Rezzonico and Francesco Femia
Introduction
The concept of “ecological security” references the threats to human, national, and global security that arise from the interconnected effects of climate change, environmental degradation, and ecosystem collapse. Though ecological security is a relatively novel concept, its constituent elements—including aspects of traditional and non-traditional (e.g., human, environmental, climate, and bio) security concepts—are generally understood globally, even as their use and application vary by region.
In Southeast Asia, non-traditional security concepts are recognized but tend to have specialized contexts and are applied uniquely among different stakeholders in different countries. Ecological security is not well recognized at this point, and its framework for holistic assessment of complex and interconnected threat groupings has not yet gained wide traction.
This briefing note assesses the relevance of ecological security and related concepts in Southeast Asia and provides a preliminary cataloging and analysis of some of the most pressing complex ecological security threats facing the region, including recommendations for establishing a framework for future analysis, policy, and practice. It has been informed primarily by three roundtable sessions with participants, including regional academics and practitioners and US and European experts on regional and ecological security concepts. Three major ecological security trends emerged from the discussions: the Mekong ecosystem polycrisis, the unanticipated externalities of an accelerated green transition, and the impact of environmental crimes on regional security. The brief offers three preliminary recommendations to interested practitioners for establishing an ecological security framework for Southeast Asia, including; increasing dialogue between experts, security services, and civil society; developing working groups among experts to break silos and bridge practical divides; and drawing clear connections between ecological security risks and political-security outcomes.
New Report: Climate Security in Mainland Southeast Asia: A Scenarios Based Assessment
By John Lichtefeld | Project managed by Brigitte Hugh | Edited by Francesco Femia
A new report from the Center for Climate and Security (CCS), Climate Security in Mainland Southeast Asia: A Scenarios Based Assessment, explores the socio-political, technological, demographic, diplomatic, military, and economic drivers that may shape the converging threats of climate change and national security in Mainland Southeast Asia. This paper posits four “climate security scenarios” built on expert input and identification of two key drivers of insecurity: state governance capacity and social and economic inequality.
Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam are extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts owing to their geographic situation and natural characteristics, as well as their relatively heterogeneous levels of internal development and governing capacities. Regional populations are already experiencing the first order physical consequences of a changing climate, including an increased frequency of extreme weather events, higher mean temperatures, decreased weather predictability, and rising sea levels.
Beyond these immediately observable consequences, an array of cascading second order effects is likely to emerge over the coming years, as the region’s inhabitants are forced to cope with unstable agricultural conditions, declining freshwater availability, and increasing energy costs. The future of Mainland Southeast Asia’s development, as well as its overall stability and security, will be determined in large part by the vulnerabilities and resilience of its constituent states, as well as the willingness of governments in the region to work together and with global partners to mitigate climate risks before consequences are imminent and unavoidable.
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