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New Report: Climate Security in Mainland Southeast Asia: A Scenarios Based Assessment
By John Lichtefeld | Project managed by Brigitte Hugh | Edited by Francesco Femia
A new report from the Center for Climate and Security (CCS), Climate Security in Mainland Southeast Asia: A Scenarios Based Assessment, explores the socio-political, technological, demographic, diplomatic, military, and economic drivers that may shape the converging threats of climate change and national security in Mainland Southeast Asia. This paper posits four “climate security scenarios” built on expert input and identification of two key drivers of insecurity: state governance capacity and social and economic inequality.
Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam are extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts owing to their geographic situation and natural characteristics, as well as their relatively heterogeneous levels of internal development and governing capacities. Regional populations are already experiencing the first order physical consequences of a changing climate, including an increased frequency of extreme weather events, higher mean temperatures, decreased weather predictability, and rising sea levels.
Beyond these immediately observable consequences, an array of cascading second order effects is likely to emerge over the coming years, as the region’s inhabitants are forced to cope with unstable agricultural conditions, declining freshwater availability, and increasing energy costs. The future of Mainland Southeast Asia’s development, as well as its overall stability and security, will be determined in large part by the vulnerabilities and resilience of its constituent states, as well as the willingness of governments in the region to work together and with global partners to mitigate climate risks before consequences are imminent and unavoidable.
(more…)President Obama and Thai Prime Minister Shingluck on Climate Change
President Obama’s historic trip to Asia, which included the first visit to Burma by a sitting U.S. president, is clearly a watershed moment for U.S. foreign policy, human rights and democracy promotion. But it also marks an important development in addressing the global climate crisis. The U.S. is reconsidering its national security priorities and “pivoting” to the Asia-Pacific for a number of reasons. One of those reasons, though it often goes unsaid, is to compete (and sometimes cooperate) with China for influence in this key strategic region. However one feels about that strategy, this momentum should be harnessed in order to address the current and future effects of climate change on the vulnerable places and nations of Asia-Pacific (see here for our piece on this subject from last February, A Marshall Plan to Combat Climate Change in the Asia-Pacific). (more…)
Bangkok: The Atlantis of the Pacific?
A new piece in The Diplomat explores the environmental and human factors contributing to what could be a Bangkok that is partially underwater by 2030. As stated by the author, Stephen Finch:
The most pessimistic forecasts suggest parts of the capital could be underwater by 2030 as the increasing population sucks up ground water, and other environmental factors take their toll. (more…)
Room for Climate Diplomacy: Secretary Clinton’s Trip to Asia and the Future of U.S. Engagement in the Region
A recent New York Times article covering Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s current diplomatic travels in Asia focused on her efforts to ramp up trade with the region. This move is seen by some analysts as the softer side of the Obama administration’s so-called “pacific pivot” or “rebound,” where the spotlight has until now shone primarily on plans to expand the U.S. military presence in the region. (more…)