By Andrea Rezzonico, Caroline Baxter, and Erin Sikorsky

Executive Summary

Indonesia faces intensifying climate change impacts that can undermine its national security. As the largest archipelagic nation strategically positioned between the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean, Indonesia is highly exposed to climate hazards such as sea-level rise, cyclones, extreme heat, drought, flooding, and wildfires. These hazards jeopardize Indonesia’s defense infrastructure and military readiness. Key military bases, particularly in geopolitically sensitive areas, are vulnerable to extreme weather events and subsequent energy disruptions, potentially limiting the armed forces’ ability to respond to regional crises. At the same time, climate-sensitive sectors – and major employers – such as agriculture and fisheries are increasingly vulnerable to warmer temperatures and erratic precipitation patterns. This already impacts rice production and fish catches in the country, raising food security concerns and increasing the potential for internal migration, rising unemployment, and other domestic challenges.