By Andrea Rezzonico, Caroline Baxter, and Erin Sikorsky

Executive Summary

Indonesia faces intensifying climate change impacts that can undermine its national security. As the largest archipelagic nation strategically positioned between the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean, Indonesia is highly exposed to climate hazards such as sea-level rise, cyclones, extreme heat, drought, flooding, and wildfires. These hazards jeopardize Indonesia’s defense infrastructure and military readiness. Key military bases, particularly in geopolitically sensitive areas, are vulnerable to extreme weather events and subsequent energy disruptions, potentially limiting the armed forces’ ability to respond to regional crises. At the same time, climate-sensitive sectors – and major employers – such as agriculture and fisheries are increasingly vulnerable to warmer temperatures and erratic precipitation patterns. This already impacts rice production and fish catches in the country, raising food security concerns and increasing the potential for internal migration, rising unemployment, and other domestic challenges.

Transitioning to renewable energy is challenging for Indonesia given its significant domestic fossil fuel resources. However, Jakarta has signaled its willingness to engage in the renewable energy transition by participating in the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) and its work via ASEAN. The government recognizes that the country’s heavy reliance on coal, in particular, will further erode its national security over the long term. Coal-fired plants result in major health impacts and environmental degradation, straining food and fresh water systems. Corruption in the coal sector further undermines public trust at a delicate moment in Indonesian politics. Integrating climate security into national defense policy —alongside accelerating the energy transition—is essential for bolstering Indonesia’s long-term resilience.

This landscape assessment covers the following topics:

Indonesia’s Intensifying Climate Vulnerability: Indonesia is projected to experience severe climate hazards—rising sea levels, extreme heat, droughts, and other increasingly destructive natural disasters — that threaten its physical territory and national security.

Direct Risks to Military Readiness and Infrastructure from Climate Change: Indonesia’s defense infrastructure is exposed to extreme weather events. Climate hazards threaten bases in geostrategic regions, undermining fuel supply chains, airfield operations, waterfront services, intelligence capabilities, and more.

Impacts on Economic, Food, and Water Security: Key economic sectors — especially agriculture and fisheries — are sensitive to erratic precipitation patterns, higher temperatures, and more. Studies forecast rice yields may be significantly reduced at just 1°C of warming, while coral bleaching and migrating fish threaten the livelihoods of fishing communities. These dynamics could intersect with other socio-economic challenges and result in unemployment, internal migration, nutrition deficiencies, and public discontent.

The Growing Liability of Fossil Fuel Dependence: The country’s reliance on coal harms Indonesians’ health and environmental security. The resulting contamination degrades food and fresh water supplies, resources that will be further compromised by climate-induced stressors.

Renewable Energy as a Strategic Opportunity: The transition to renewable energy can enhance Indonesia’s resilience, economic competitiveness, and geopolitical position as global trends tilt towards renewables to ensure long-term energy security.