Safeguarding US National Security at the Crossroads of Food and Climate Change

Executive Summary

Today, the global food security situation is dire, with a confluence of environmental, economic, and political shocks reversing progress on hunger and pushing more than 250 million people into food insecurity.¹ It is increasingly clear that a resilient food system is needed to ensure US national security and global stability. Yet pressure from conflict, economic shocks, demographic trends, water insecurity, geopolitical competition, and climate change complicate efforts to build such resilience.

This report identifies three areas where these dynamics intersect to affect US national security. First, the nexus of food insecurity and conflict threatens US interests, whether from instability over food price spikes, the weaponization of food by adversary states or extremists, or humanitarian crises from lost farming livelihoods. Second, the United States must navigate the geopolitics of food, whether Russia’s weaponization of food insecurity for leverage in Ukraine, China’s lead in agricultural research and development, or maritime conflict risks over dwindling fish stocks. Third, the US national security apparatus must be attuned to the challenges and opportunities in achieving a more resilient food system, ranging from the promise of innovation to prevent food-related security tensions to the instability pitfalls involved in reforming agricultural subsidies.

Fortunately, the United States has a long and bipartisan history of international leadership on food security, dating back to the Eisenhower Administration. Additionally, its current policies provide a good start toward addressing these risks. Food and climate insecurity feature prominently in US strategy documents, US Agency for International Development (USAID) and US Department of Agriculture (USDA) emergency and developmental food assistance is robust, and US institutions house leading food and climate expertise. However, persistent gaps leave the United States increasingly vulnerable to food-related national security risks in a warming world, including overlap and gaps across programs, institutional silos, insufficient funding for research and development (R&D), and gaps between food, climate, and national security forecasting.

With this in mind, this report from the Center for Climate and Security (CCS), a nonpartisan nonprofit research institute of the Council on Strategic Risks, synthesizes more than a year of research and expert consultations to present actionable recommendations for the US government to better address the national security risks of food insecurity amid climate change. These recommendations, titled The Feeding Resilience Plan, have been endorsed by 32 military, diplomatic, development, intelligence, and other leaders. The recommendations are organized across four key pillars:

Pillar 1, Lead and Coordinate: Strengthen policy integration and better use expertise to take more coherent and evidence-based action on the national security implications of food insecurity and climate change.

1. Issue a new Food Security Executive Order to accelerate and coordinate action across domestic and international agencies.
2. Establish a standing National Security Council process on sustainable and secure food systems integrating climate and food security.
3. Identify ways for national security agencies to complement and align their policies with governance and peacebuilding priorities of the Global Food Security Strategy (GFSS).
4. Better share expertise between the US Government’s national security and foreign policy agencies and its agriculture, scientific, and trade agencies.
5. Build on and improve the food security components of the Global Fragility Act (GFA).

Pillar 2, Analyze and Anticipate: Build on forecasting, intelligence assessment, and wargaming capabilities to better foresee food-related national security challenges.

1. Expand on USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) to include longer-term food insecurity warnings informed by climate projections, agricultural trends, and security considerations.
2. Task a National Intelligence Estimate on the US national security implications of the 10 to 15-year global food security trajectory that integrates USDA, federal science, and intelligence community expertise.
3. Assess the impacts of food insecurity on Department of Defense (DoD) missions and operating environments.

Pillar 3, Invest Strategically: Allocate government funding toward key priorities supporting US security and national strength, including agricultural R&D and adaptation, emergency and developmental food assistance, and food supply chain infrastructure.

1. Increase investment in agricultural research, development, and innovation through the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), DoD, and US public universities.
2. Support long-term resilience building in vulnerable countries by sustaining and expanding Feed the Future and the Vision for Adapted Crops and Soils (VACS).
3. Build resilience in global food supply chains by bolstering distribution and storage infrastructure and diversifying food supply networks.
4. Align public and private sector resilience investments.

Pillar 4, Engage Diplomatically: Cultivate partnerships to support a secure food system, account for food and agriculture in great power competition, and reinforce measures against weaponization of food in conflict and diplomatic disputes.

1. Support allies and partners in efforts to prevent, anticipate, and respond to food insecurity, such as via shared agricultural technology and early warning tools.
2. Reiterate US opposition to the weaponization of food in conflict and better prepare allies and partners to oppose the practice.
3. Prioritize global food security in US engagement in multilateral institutions and fora. This prioritization should include security institutions, such as NATO, as well as diplomatic and development institutions and fora, including the World Bank, IMF, G7, G20, and UNFCCC process.
4. Explore opportunities to cooperate with China on food-related issues of mutual interest, such as global food system resilience, agricultural emissions reductions, and addressing food waste.