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CCS Comments on the First National Nature Assessment Zero Order Draft
Last month, the Center for Climate and Security (CCS) and its Ecological Security Program (ESP) had the opportunity to comment on the Zero Order Draft for the First National Nature Assessment (NNA1) prepared by the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), and is publishing its input here. Last year, CCS submitted public comments on the NNA1 Draft Prospectus and published a blog post about the input. As noted at the time, NNA1’s work to assess the status and trajectory of the US natural environment and the risks of its degradation marked an important step in evaluating broader ecological security issues in the US. This report will be similar in scope to National Climate Assessments published since 2000.
CCS continues to broadly support the themes and framework of the Zero Order Draft, and looks forward to NNA1’s completion in 2026. As indicated in the comments, the USGCRP has included the majority of the recommendations CCS made on the Draft Prospectus and incorporated them into the new outline. While all twelve of the anticipated chapters of the NNA1 have implications for domestic and international security, Chapter 9: Nature and Risk, Resilience, and Security in the U.S. and Chapter 10: Nature and Climate Change in the U.S. have the most direct relation to the work of CCS and ESP.
Overall, CCS’s comments emphasize the importance of expanding the geographic focus of the NNA1 beyond domestic, publicly owned lands and including analysis on potential risks of maladaptation to human security and U.S. national security. Below are CCS’s specific comments under the aforementioned chapters.
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BRIEFER: Litio 2040: Sustainably Developing Mexico’s Lithium from Ground to Grid
By Keith Lema, Ecological Security Fellow
Note: This briefer was drafted prior to the June 2024 Presidential Election in Mexico. The views expressed are the author’s own and not necessarily those of the U.S. Government
Executive Summary
In recent years, Mexico’s outgoing President, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), has sought to develop lithium resources in the state of Sonora. AMLO and many Mexican policymakers hope to leverage lithium to profit from the rapidly growing value chain of clean energy minerals and technology. Lithium-ion batteries, electric vehicles, and other clean energy technologies are attracting skyrocketing sums of capital. Global clean energy investment surpassed investment for fossil fuels in 2016 and by 2023, clean energy investment exceeded that for fossil fuels by over half a trillion dollars.1 This precipitous increase means that Mexico’s lithium reserves may become a crucial asset. However, to harness this resource responsibly, the nation must navigate the delicate balance between economic development and ecological security concerns.
Monetizing this resource is more complex than some Mexican policymakers would hope. Three issues should give Mexican policymakers pause. First, unregulated lithium mining can threaten local ecosystems through pollution and water loss. Second, drug cartels have a track record of co-opting other natural resources in Mexico to diversify their revenue streams. Thus, the potential wealth of lithium production could create security risks for Sonoran residents or workers operating lithium mines. Third, it will take a long time to produce lithium at commercial scale. There are significant economic risks that mining projects could fail to become cost-competitive. If Mexico and Sonoran residents face some ecological damage as a cost of lithium extraction, they should at least have a clear path to shared economic benefits. With a consequential Presidential Election in 2024, now is the time for Mexican political leaders to carefully analyze their options regarding lithium mining and ensure minimal damage to ecological security.
In this context, political leaders in Mexico and community leaders in Sonora should consider the following recommendations:
- Bring Lithium to the Public Square: A new president will be elected in June 2024. Both candidates should develop specific proposals for lithium development as part of a broader clean energy strategy and debate them.
- A Whole-of-Government Approach to Cartels: Cartel influence, violence, and corruption are transnational problems that Mexican leaders will still wrestle with in 2040. Stakeholders in Sonora’s lithium endowment must consider steps to thwart cartel efforts to profit from this critical mineral.
- Shared Benefits and Continual Stakeholder Consultation: Any future mining should adhere to international conventions for Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC). Given the poor track record of mining companies in the region, Federal authorities should establish and maintain a monitoring system to analyze water quality and quantity in the local watershed.
Event: US Foreign Policy, Climate Change and Natural Resources
The World Affairs Council is hosting (and live-streaming) an event tomorrow evening titled: In Pursuit of Prosperity: US Foreign Policy in an Era of Resource Scarcity. It is a timely topic and includes an impressive set of speakers.
The event is from 6:30-7:30Pm (presumably Pacific time) at the World Affairs Council Headquarters in San Francisco. If you are not able to attend you can watch it online as well. (more…)
Climate Change in Australia’s New National Security Strategy
The Australian government has just released its new national security strategy titled “Strong and Secure: A Strategy for Australia’s National Security.” Within its fifty-eight pages, the security challenge of climate change is featured under the heading of “broader global challenges with national security implications,” and described in the following way: (more…)