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Event Summary: Climate Geopolitics and The U.S. Military at COP28
By Elsa Barron
On the first Monday of COP28 in Dubai, the Center for Climate and Security (CCS) and the University of Pennsylvania hosted U.S. Assistant Secretary of the Army Rachel Jacobson and U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for Arctic and Global Resilience Iris Ferguson for a fireside chat with Dr. Scott Moore on “Climate Geopolitics and The U.S. Military: Risks and Opportunities.” In response to shifting global dynamics and intensifying risks to human well-being around the world as a result of climate change, the panel addressed how governments must adapt their institutions to meet unprecedented challenges—with specific attention to climate change-related geopolitical dynamics and how they shape U.S. partnerships, risks, and opportunities abroad.
DASD Ferguson began by sharing that their delegation has received questions about why the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has been present at COP over the past two years, given that they are a non-traditional player in the climate space. In response, she noted that DoD has been working at the intersection between climate change and security for decades and the latest National Defense Strategy set a strong demand signal that climate change is a national security priority. The partnerships made at COP—with diplomats, policymakers, and industry representatives—are crucial to building the Department’s capacity to mitigate and adapt to climate challenges. Both speakers emphasized that the military has a lot to learn in an environment like COP28. While Jacobson said that they may not be known as “tree-huggers” Ferguson emphasized “if you’re not here, you’re not relevant” and both representatives indicated that they want to show up as relevant and useful partners to face climate challenges.
As an example of ongoing partnerships, Assistant Secretary Jacobson shared that the Army Corps of Engineers is engaged in climate adaptation around the world, especially related to water management. In Paraguay, they have a five-year partnership on river management, in Mozambique, they are collaborating on watersheds, and in Ecuador, they are helping repair environmental degradation from dam infrastructure. The Army Corps was also central in responding to the flooding in Pakistan last year, which CCS has previously highlighted as an example of climate security risk.
Ferguson added that the US military’s regional combatant commands are working globally to respond to climate change, which is often defined by local partners and allies as the number one security risk. She applauded the development of the CCS’s Military Responses to Climate Hazards (MiRCH) Tracker, which illustrates the significance of militaries as some of the first responders to climate disasters, not only in the United States but around the world. On this point, Jacobson added that the Army’s strength in logistics is what sets it apart as first responders to climate disasters. Increasingly, troops are training to respond to climate-related hazards because that is what they are being called up to do. In light of this growing need across countries and communities, DoD is thinking about ways to build the capacity of partner militaries, particularly through the Department’s Defense Operational Resilience International Cooperation (DORIC) pilot project.
It is not only climate adaptation but also the transition to renewable energy that comes with risks and opportunities for the US military. Ferguson stated that the war in Ukraine provided a wake-up call for the need to ensure sufficient energy resources from a dependable source. Domestically, she noted this can be accomplished through distributed generation on military bases. Considerations relating to supply chain reliability and interoperability must be made, but both speakers emphasized the importance of decarbonization to reduce the emissions footprint of the military. Returning to base infrastructure, Jacobson noted that installing microgrids is essential for both energy security and sustainability. Even on the operational side, it makes sense to switch to renewable energy sources. She shared that in Iraq and Afghanistan, some of the most vulnerable soldiers were those transporting fuel. Those vulnerabilities can be avoided with sustainable technologies that minimize the need for oil.
In response to the conversation on stage, the audience inquired about military emissions reporting, noting the gap in UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) emissions reporting requirements for militaries, and the importance of transparency and accountability for reducing emissions from all global contributors. Another audience member wondered whether DoD might consider U.S. investments into the Loss and Damage fund as an opportunity to support communities facing the harshest climate change impacts, resulting in positive security dividends. Both of these questions present opportunities for further thinking in the wake of COP28, especially if DoD plans to continue its attendance at the global climate conference in years to come.
Climate Security at COP28: Issues to Watch
By Elsa Barron and Erin Sikorsky
As the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change kicks off in the UAE later this week, a range of challenging security and geopolitical dynamics will shape the landscape against which the negotiations will unfold. At the same time, it’s never been clearer that action to tackle climate threats can pay peace, security, and stability dividends. For the climate security community, we recommend watching these four topics closely during the COP:
1. Nexus of Climate and Peace on the COP Agenda
For the first time in the history of the UN climate conference, peace is explicitly named on the agenda. The thematic focus for December 3rd is Health/ Relief/ Recovery and Peace and will focus on “accelerating adaptation, preventing and addressing loss and damage, including in fragile and conflict-affected contexts, which face severe barriers to accessing climate finance and strengthening climate action.” One of the hallmarks of the day will be the launch of a declaration on these topics by the COP28 host government, UAE, and other government and NGO partners. The declaration will be accompanied by a package of solutions – practical and implementable steps that signatories can make to ensure progress in these areas.
More broadly, climate security will be featured at COP in multiple events in the Blue and Green Zone, with the United States sending a large delegation of officials from the Department of Defense responsible for climate and clean energy policies.
Additional resources to consider:
2. The Geopolitical and Security Implications of Climate Finance
It is increasingly clear that investment in climate finance – particularly finance for adaptation – is a critical tool in the climate security toolkit. Buying down future risk of instability and conflict by helping vulnerable countries manage the energy transition and adapt to climate hazards is a smart security investment.
Shortfalls in such funding are also increasingly a geopolitical flashpoint. As US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines warned in her annual testimony to Congress earlier this year, “Tensions also are rising between countries over climate financing.” High-and middle-income countries are still lagging in their commitments to climate finance for low-income countries.
Negotiations over the new loss and damage fund were tense in the lead-up to COP, as countries debated how to structure a fund aimed at providing payments for climate disasters suffered by nations that have contributed the least to greenhouse gas emissions. The operationalization of this fund, as well as the push to double funding for adaptation and meet and exceed the yearly $100 billion promise for finance, will be the focus of many developing countries in the COP discussions.
Additional resources to consider:
- Climate Finance, Food Security and Cracks in the Transatlantic Alliance at COP28 (CCS)
- Rich Nations Cut Aid for Climate Shocks, Even as Risks Grew (NYT)
- For National Security, Climate Finance Must Be Made ‘Conflict-Proof’ (The Hill)
3. The Impact of War on Climate and Environmental Concerns
The wars in Gaza and Ukraine will loom over negotiations at COP28. As the United States in particular prioritizes military aid to Israel and Ukraine and falls short on its climate finance commitments, it risks increasing frustration from countries in the Global South that feel betrayed by the unkept promises of wealthy nations for financial support. At last year’s COP in Egypt, Ukraine held a session on war-related emissions in an effort to hold Russia to account for the damage caused by its invasion, and it’s likely similar conversations will be held at this COP.
Both conflicts have serious environmental consequences, on top of their devastating and immediate humanitarian implications. Gaza is facing extreme food, water, and fuel shortages due to the combination of a seventeen-year siege, more acute blockades during the current war, and a lack of humanitarian aid, and is unable to desalinate critical water supplies or operate sanitation facilities before sewage water enters the Mediterranean Sea. In Ukraine, the conflict threatens long-term ecological health, agricultural productivity, and global food security.
Additional CCS resources to consider:
- In Focus: The Interwoven Roots of Systemic Food Insecurity in Palestine
- One Year Later: Unraveling Climate and Ecological Security in Ukraine
- Climate, Ecological Security and the Ukraine Crisis: Four Issues to Consider
4. The Global Stocktake and Future Climate Security
One of the main objectives of COP28 is to complete the first-ever Global Stocktake, which will assess progress toward the Paris Agreement goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Ahead of COP, the UN Environment Program’s Emissions Gap Report found that with current commitments, the world is on a trajectory toward 2.9 degrees Celsius of warming, nearly twice the Paris Agreement limit.
The world’s projected warming provides a map for understanding future climate security risks. With greater temperature rise comes more extreme heat, disaster, drought, ice melt, and sea level rise. In addition to the direct effects of these conditions on the security of impacted communities, they also intersect with existing social, political, and geopolitical dynamics, creating additional security risks. For example, recent analysis of Iran and Turkey illustrates the potential for water insecurity to exacerbate regional tension and conflict risk. Amidst the pursuit of greater investment in climate adaptation, it is important to re-emphasize that drawing down emissions today makes adaptation more achievable and climate security risks more manageable in the future.
Additional CCS Resources to Consider:
Climate Finance, Food Security, and Cracks in the Transatlantic Alliance at COP28: Recommendations for the Global Stocktake
This blog post is part of the Nexus25 project, a joint initiative of the Istituto Affari Internazionali and the Center for Climate and Security, focused on sustainable multilateralism, and supported by Stiftung Mercator.
In the runup to the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), climate change’s role in complex security and humanitarian crises is continuing to challenge the capacity and ambition of the international community. As perhaps the most contentious issue in global climate action, climate finance is rightly a top priority for advocates and world leaders in Dubai.
While most member states recognize that climate change is driving, and will continue to drive, migration and food insecurity, and is disproportionately impacting marginalized populations, climate finance is a glaring gap in their policies and plans to respond to the resulting threats. The massive injection of funding required and the domestic politics that continue to stymie investment from world leaders is a critical barrier to meeting countries’ emissions and resilience goals, or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). In this context, we recommend three key priorities in the leadup to COP28: finding new approaches to climate finance; improving messaging on the urgency of the climate threat; and repairing transatlantic relations to show leadership.
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Five Climate Security Angles to Consider at the Climate Change Conference in Sharm el-Sheikh
By Erin Sikorsky and Brigitte Hugh
As the 27th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change kicks off in Egypt next week, a wide range of climate change issues will be discussed. Wondering how these discussions connect to or impact security? CCS has you covered with some reading suggestions.
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