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From Hybrid Threats to Stability Multipliers: Meeting the Climate Security Moment
I had the honor of joining the opening panel, the State of Climate Security, at the Montreal Climate Security Conference hosted by the NATO Climate and Security Center of Excellence and the Conference of Defense Associations on 7 October, 2025. This essay is based on my remarks.
When it comes to climate security, the world is in a dangerous moment. Instead of closing the gap between the climate security threat and the military and security community’s responses, that gap is widening.
For years, the dominant framework for understanding climate change in the security field has been the “threat multiplier” model—asking how climate affects existing priorities such as countering Russia, competing with China, and curbing terrorism. This framing is accurate and useful: climate change does worsen many existing security challenges. It is also politically convenient. By using this model, we can assure defense communities that we’re not asking them to take on new missions or care about new issues—we’re simply helping them do their jobs better.
One example that exemplifies the threat multiplier model is a US State Department International Security Advisory Board report that included a case study of how climate impacts could shape a conflict over Taiwan. The report modeled how a typhoon or other extreme storm might knock out key infrastructure, disrupt supply chains, block reinforcements, and heighten the risk of miscalculation. It’s an excellent piece of analysis—and we need more like it.
But it’s not enough.
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Climate Security Questions Ahead of Secretary of State Rubio’s Senate Testimony
Next week, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee will hold a hearing on the FY2026 State Department Budget Request. CCS has prepared a series of questions members of Congress should raise with Secretary of State Rubio related to climate change, extreme weather, food systems, and national security. These questions are based in part on policy recommendations made by CCS in January.
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NOAA’s Critical Contributions to US National Security
What is NOAA?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is an agency within the Department of Commerce with roots dating back over 200 years. NOAA was established in 1970 as the nation’s first physical science agency, combining the US Coast and Geodetic Survey, Weather Bureau, and US Commission of Fish and Fisheries (founded throughout the 1800s). NOAA is currently the largest agency within the Department of Commerce, making up roughly a quarter of the personnel and half of the department’s annual budget. NOAA’s budget overall makes up just 0.1% of the entire federal budget, yet is an incredibly outsized economic value add for the American people. A recent study by the American Meteorological Society shows that every dollar invested into the National Weather Service, just one of NOAA’s many services, produces $73 in value for the American public.
NOAA’s mission “to understand and predict changes in climate, weather, ocean, and coasts, to share that knowledge and information with others, and to conserve and manage coastal and marine ecosystems and resources” is crucial in numerous ways for the safety and security of the United States and its people. NOAA’s research programs, vessels, satellites, science centers, laboratories, and extensive pool of distinguished scientists and experts play key roles in protecting human lives and economic prosperity both domestically and internationally. Current reports indicate as many as 880 people across all six offices of the agency, including meteorologists, hydrologists, early warning systems staff, technicians, and other scientists, have been let go, with more potential reductions in force to come. Disruptions to these functions risk harm to global influence, US military capabilities, and homeland security.
(more…)Make or Break Moment for German Climate Security
This weekend, voters solidified a long-anticipated shakeup of the German government following a campaign season that focused largely on immigration and Germany’s sluggish economy. As expected, the vote shifted the balance of power sharply right from the left-leaning Social Democratic Party (SPD) coalition to the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU). However, while the CDU came out on top with 28 percent of the vote, the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) won an unprecedented (but expected) ~21 percent of the vote. Therefore, the CDU must build a coalition with other mainstream parties to maintain the so-called “firewall” against the far-right.
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