A recent report by epidemiologists at Washington State University forecasts that commercial honeybee colony deaths could reach 70% in 2025 – compared to average annual losses between 40-50% in previous seasons. Although the exact cause is still unknown, scientists posit this collapse could be due to a range of factors including disease, pesticide use, invasive mites, and nutritional deficiencies. This is in sharp contrast to the same time last year, when US honeybee colonies reached a record high following decades of decline. The drastic change over less than one year demonstrates the volatility that will likely characterize the broader field of ecological security in the coming decades – especially when factors such as climate change, land use change, pesticides, and other disruptions cascade into one another.
As CSR has previously reported, the consequences of this sort of biodiversity crisis has far-reaching implications for national and global security. The most direct pathway centers on the potential disruptions to food supplies for a dependent population – and the subsequent health repercussions that could arise if those goods were no longer accessible.
According to the US Department of Agriculture, honeybees contribute up to $15 billion to the US agricultural industry, including the pollination of 130 types of fruits, nuts, and vegetables. Food systems are globally linked – an interruption in one part of the world can erode food security for dozens of countries directly or indirectly dependent on that supply. The impact of this pollinator loss will layer on top of the ongoing global food crisis driven by conflict, economic turmoil, political shocks, and environmental challenges. The current geopolitical landscape will likely exacerbate food insecurity for millions via food price spikes, shifting policies, international competition, instability, and more.
Second, the honeybee collapse could affect the United States’ economic security, and particularly the livelihoods of those dependent on the connected industries. In 2022, more than 22 million jobs – 10.4 percent of total US employment – were related to the agriculture and food industries.The major agricultural sectors most susceptible to pollinator disruptions include coffee, cacao, and almond – the latter comprising a major part of California’s agricultural output.
Third, widespread pollinator loss can exacerbate pre-existing vulnerabilities in an already strained system. For example, pollinator loss was one of several converging risks that contributed to a fictional Southeast Asian country’s eventual slide into authoritarian rule in a CSR scenario exercise. While the United States has more resilient capacity to absorb such a shock, the honeybee development may serve as a signal for systemic challenges in the future.
These pathways represent just a fraction of the potential ramifications of large-scale pollinator loss. There are many ways in which such an event could intersect with other known and unknown risks and ultimately undermine national security. Maintaining biodiversity through habitat conservation, minimizing land-use change, controlling pesticide use in agriculture practices, planting native flora and fauna, and other integrated pest management practices can begin to address pollinator collapse. It is in the United States’ national security interest to prioritize these issues and support a resilient global food system.