The UK Ministry of Defence’s Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre just released the 5th edition of its “Global Strategic Trends Out to 2045” report, and climate change is featured significantly within its pages. In addition to a thorough look at water, food, energy, biodiversity and humanitarian risks associated with climate change, the report also detailed some specific “defence and security implications” on page 39:
■ Extreme weather events, such as flooding and droughts, are likely to increase in both frequency and intensity in a number of regions. Extreme events will almost certainly continue to cause widespread damage and loss of life, although our warning mechanisms, defences and ability to respond may also improve in the same timeframe.
■ Reductions in the extent of summer Arctic sea-ice could open up new shipping routes during the summer months and boost economic growth in the region – increasing its strategic significance for many countries.
■ Degraded and threatened environments are likely to lead to affected communities migrating – with potentially destabilising consequences.
■ Armed and security forces, both at home and abroad, are likely to be more frequently tasked with providing humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, perhaps supporting indigenous responders.
■ Without mitigation measures such as carbon capture and storage, continued reliance on coal and hydrocarbons for the majority of energy demand may exacerbate climate change and its knock-on effects.
Read the full report here.
Hello! Thank you for the very interesting – the last – two posts. Especially – because they, by the simultaneous consideration, have much in common. Despite the different sources: US and UK. IMHO, when determining the threats from climate change risk assessment and adaptation methods developers oriented documents – above all – on their known scientific methods and technologies available. So – out of the question and presentation – were a threat, adaptation to which presented an impossible. For example, the developers of the UK ignored extremely alarming symptom: over the past few years, the area has repeatedly UK was completely covered in snow … that was not at least 400 years. Apparently, the work on the topic «UK-completely covered with snow” was held: “We … we can somehow withstand such disasters? – No. – Then – do not consider and do not include in the list of threats from climate change. ” This scenario seems to me fundamentally work erroneous.
P.S. Relatively new manufacturing Atlas … Due to the fact that the constantly changing surface of the Earth … until the shoreline changes, trends and power of ocean currents, ice cover in the Arctic and Antarctic, etc., any Atlas will contain outdated information even when its exit from the printer. I take photos of the Earth’s surface, made from satellites … including satellites and NASA. Hardly expedient to manufacture in large quantities Atlas copies: most likely, it will be of interest only to collectors … for personal libraries.