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Ecological Security Threats in North Africa for 2040: Water Scarcity and Desertification
By Malak Altaeb, Ecological Security Fellow
Introduction
Climate change is one of the world’s most prominent challenges, with serious impacts on food systems around the world. These impacts include low agricultural productivity, food insecurity due to water scarcity, and desertification. North Africa is considered a hot spot for climate change. A combination of water scarcity and desertification is taking its toll on many countries in the region, leaving many communities under stress. The region’s dry climate—getting increasingly drier due to climate change— is making the situation even worse. Countries in North Africa, including Tunisia, Libya, and Algeria, are experiencing different water scarcity and desertification levels, driven by multiple factors and amplified by political and economic constraints. This briefer delves into the multifaceted dimensions of water scarcity and desertification in the region, identifies key drivers of these challenges, and proposes key recommendations for addressing them before 2040.
Countries in the region must focus development on sustainable agriculture and enhanced water management by:
- Reviving deserted lands, encouraging conservation in agriculture, and introducing irrigation techniques that would enhance water usage for agriculture, such as drip irrigation
- Investing in drought-resistant crops and wastewater recycling plants
- Promoting enhanced business-oriented community-based initiatives centered on the environment and community resilience through capacity building and training programs
- Adopting a holistic approach to better water resource usage and land conservation practices to protect available arable land.
- Developing policies to incorporate technological advancement in food and water security
The Atlantic Cities: Climate Change and Water Scarcity
Atlantic Cities’ John Metcalfe recently ran a piece arguing that water scarcity – with an emphasis on more severe drought – is the most immediate threat emanating from a changing climate. While we would add “water variability” to that assessment (as too much water, or too much or too little water when you’re expecting something different, are consequences of climate change that are also problematic factors that compound scarcity), it’s important to highlight this issue in the mainstream media, which tends to primarily focus on sea level rise and extreme storms. Given the IPCC’s assessment that we’re already seeing extended droughts that are likely linked to climate change, and recent studies such as NOAA’s 2011 report which linked climate change to the decrease in winter precipitation in the Mediterranean littoral and the Mashreq since the 1970s, its a prescient warning.
Yemen: Instability, Water and Climate Change
The Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre, an entity established by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign in 2008, has recently released a report on the complex sources of political, economic and social instability in Yemen, and the international dimensions of that instability. The report also touches on the water and climate change dimensions of the country’s security profile. Here are the relevant passages: (more…)