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Ecological Security Threats in North Africa for 2040: Water Scarcity and Desertification
By Malak Altaeb, Ecological Security Fellow
Introduction
Climate change is one of the world’s most prominent challenges, with serious impacts on food systems around the world. These impacts include low agricultural productivity, food insecurity due to water scarcity, and desertification. North Africa is considered a hot spot for climate change. A combination of water scarcity and desertification is taking its toll on many countries in the region, leaving many communities under stress. The region’s dry climate—getting increasingly drier due to climate change— is making the situation even worse. Countries in North Africa, including Tunisia, Libya, and Algeria, are experiencing different water scarcity and desertification levels, driven by multiple factors and amplified by political and economic constraints. This briefer delves into the multifaceted dimensions of water scarcity and desertification in the region, identifies key drivers of these challenges, and proposes key recommendations for addressing them before 2040.
Countries in the region must focus development on sustainable agriculture and enhanced water management by:
- Reviving deserted lands, encouraging conservation in agriculture, and introducing irrigation techniques that would enhance water usage for agriculture, such as drip irrigation
- Investing in drought-resistant crops and wastewater recycling plants
- Promoting enhanced business-oriented community-based initiatives centered on the environment and community resilience through capacity building and training programs
- Adopting a holistic approach to better water resource usage and land conservation practices to protect available arable land.
- Developing policies to incorporate technological advancement in food and water security
Drought is Leading to Instability and Water Weaponization in the Middle East and North Africa
By Marcus D. King with Rianna LeHane
Water stress is a growing problem worldwide. Overuse, population growth, and climate change are contributing to desperate conditions and violent extremist organizations (VEOs) are turning scarce water into a weapon. Nowhere is this trend more visible than in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region of critical importance to U.S. national security interests. The MENA region has long been prone to both cyclical and discrete periods of droughts. There is mounting evidence suggesting that climate change, by driving significant winter precipitation decline, is increasing the frequency and severity of these events.
Climate change impacts that affected Syria could be a harbinger for other countries in the region. The connection between climate change and Syrian instability was first raised by our colleagues Francesco Femia and Caitlin Werrell in 2012, and confirmed by climate scientist and Center for Climate and Security Senior Fellow, Colin P. Kelley, and his colleagues, who linked the consequential 2007-2010 drought to a long-term warming trend in the eastern Mediterranean (finding that the drought was made 2-3 times more likely due to climate change).. Drought conditions as well as poorly-designed and discriminatory water policies implemented by the Assad regime and the Alawite elite were also factors that contributed to societal instability at the onset of the Syrian civil war. The regional climate model ALADIN corroborates previous studies projecting that the MENA region will continue to be a global hotspot for drought into the late twenty-first century.
(more…)The Climate and Security Podcast: Episode 14 with Dr. Nicolas Regaud
Welcome back to The Climate and Security Podcast!
In this episode, host Dr. Sweta Chakraborty talks to Dr. Nicolas Regaud, Special Representative to the Indo-Pacific of the Director General for International Relations and Strategy at the French Ministry of Armed Forces, and Participant in the International Military Council on Climate and Security. Nicolas explains the French point of view on the importance of acting efficiently on climate change, given that there are French nationals and territories all over the world and in areas especially vulnerable to the impacts of a warming planet. The French military plays a critical role in safeguarding its global citizens, neighbors and critical infrastructure against the impacts of climate change; as well as in providing maritime security in close partnership with regional allies. Listen to this episode to learn more about French defense activities globally and in the key warming-affected region of the Indo-Pacific. (more…)
Cascading Disasters in the Mediterranean: Storm in Lampedusa
Last Friday the Mediterranean areas around Southern Italy experienced a rare “Medicane” event of tropical storm-like conditions. Jeff Master’s explains the science behind these rare weather events, and the likelihood of seeing more of them under a changing climate.
Storms of this nature are just one more stress to the small Italian island that is also a main point of entry to the European Union for migrants and refugees from places like Syria and Eritrea. The voyage from point of origin to the shores of Europe and Italy is no cruise (more…)