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Food Trade Chokepoints & US National Security in 2040
By Sarah Danon, Saro Naomi Gakusi, Ivette Povis Landa, Jane Pan, and Claire Reichle
Edited by Caroline Baxter, Lily Boland, and Francesco Femia
Executive Summary
This study examines how the intersection of climate, geopolitical, and security threats can intensify vulnerabilities surrounding critical chokepoints in the global food trade system, and posits that these converging risks not only threaten global food security but also drive systemic threats to US national security. A strategic foresight approach is used to examine plausible future scenarios for global food trade and explore potential chokepoint disruptions and their cascading risks. The analysis concludes that maintaining secure maritime food trade is vital to US national security and provides recommendations to mitigate trade disruption and promote food security.
Shrinking or Abolishing FEMA is a Grave Risk to US National Security
By Tom Ellison and Victoria Salinas
2025 Annual Threat Assessment First in Over A Decade to Omit Climate Change
Every year, the Director of National Intelligence delivers to Congress an Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) meant to warn of the top national security risks facing the United States. The 2025 ATA, briefed to the Senate on 25 March by DNI Tulsi Gabbard, was the first to omit any mention of climate change in over a decade. Even a textbox on Russia and the Arctic does not mention climate, melting ice, or the changing environment – despite repeated, previous warnings from the US Intelligence Community (IC), across both Democratic and Republican administrations (including the first Trump term), about warming temperatures’ exacerbating risks of instability and geopolitical competition in the region.
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