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The year 2012 was the warmest year on record for the United States. It was also a year of extraordinary natural disasters in both the U.S., and abroad. Hurricane Sandy, for example, was the eleventh billion-dollar weather-related disaster for the U.S. in 2012, accompanied by unprecedented heat waves, droughts and tornadoes. Tropical storms and flooding in East Asia, unexpected heavy rains and flooding in Somalia, Nigeria, and the Republic of Congo, 19 straight months of punishing drought in northern Brazil, are just a few examples of a very volatile year in terms of extreme weather events globally. The security implications of these, and other similar events, will certainly be a subject of study in the years to come, as will be their connections to climate change. (more…)
Michael Werz and Arpita Bhattacharyya at the Center for American Progress have posted a good summary of the climate change sections of the National Intelligence Council’s (NIC) recently-released report, “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds” (you can find the full report here). Namely, they highlight findings from the study which demonstrate that 1) “Food, water, and energy demands will increase as populations rise and climate change will further constrain these resources…” and 2) “changes in resource availability and weather patterns will also likely influence migration…” They also mention some recent climate-security studies that are consistent with the NIC report, including one by us from last March:
The 2030 report adds to the growing body of research on climate change and security factors. Tom Friedman highlighted the role of climate change in the Arab Spring earlier this year, highlighting an important analysis by the Center for Climate & Security on climate change’s impact on the situation in Syria. The Center for American Progress has released three major reports on how climate change, migration, and security factors will play out in different regions of the world.
The NIC report also draws attention to potential “black swan” events, such as pandemics, accelerated climate change, and solar storms. In other words, known unknowns…
Today, the U.S. National Intelligence Council publicly launched its long-awaited report, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. And luckily for us, the Hill’s Ben Geman has written an excellent summary of the report’s assessment of climate risks. Furthermore, today’s panel discussions included some great commentary from a range of experts, practitioners and strategic thinkers. As the video of the proceedings is not up yet, below is a “140 character or less” snapshot of their remarks, and associated commentary, which we contributed to (and captured) in the twittersphere. (more…)
Today and tomorrow, the Atlantic Council’s Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security will be hosting a public launch event for the US National Intelligence Council’s (NIC) Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds report. There will also be a live stream of the event, which you can access here. According to the Atlantic Council’s website:
The high-level conference will convene more than 150 participants from the policymaking, business, media, and technology communities in the United States and from around the world in an unprecedented gathering to discuss global futures, the potential for disruptive change, and a US strategy for the coming “post-Western world.
Click here for the complete agenda.