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The War in Iran Exemplifies the National Security Rationale for Renewables
Among its many implications, the US-Israeli war against Iran exposes energy risks for countries reliant on fossil fuel imports from the Middle East, underscoring the energy security benefits of clean energy. The widening conflict, including the blockage of the oil and gas chokepoint at the Strait of Hormuz, is potentially the most disruptive conflict to the energy market since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. With oil and gas prices spiking and no clear end to the conflict, market analysts predict potential long-term disruptions to the energy supply chain, which would add further uncertainty to an already unstable geopolitical situation. Countries that react to this moment by seeking to stockpile or shift suppliers of oil and LNG simply exchange short-term energy security for long-term vulnerability, prolonging their exposure to geopolitical shocks and failing to meet their increasing energy demands.
Countries in East Asia, such as South Korea, Japan, and China, are especially reliant on oil and LNG from the Middle East, the loss of which will have significant impacts on their economies. In contrast, the falling prices, improved resilience, and strategic autonomy offered by renewable sources make them a secure option for countries looking to minimize their exposure to risk.
For more, the Center for Climate and Security has hosted “Renewable Energy is National Security” communities of practice across East and Southeast Asia, and you can read outputs from these convenings below:
- Protecting Korea’s National Security with Renewable Energy
- The interrelation of climate change and national security, The Korea Times
- The National Security Rationale for Japan’s Transition to Renewable Energy
- Protecting Japan’s National Security with Renewable Energy
- Indonesia’s Climate Security and Renewable Energy Nexus: A Landscape Assessment
Drought is Leading to Instability and Water Weaponization in the Middle East and North Africa
By Marcus D. King with Rianna LeHane
Water stress is a growing problem worldwide. Overuse, population growth, and climate change are contributing to desperate conditions and violent extremist organizations (VEOs) are turning scarce water into a weapon. Nowhere is this trend more visible than in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region of critical importance to U.S. national security interests. The MENA region has long been prone to both cyclical and discrete periods of droughts. There is mounting evidence suggesting that climate change, by driving significant winter precipitation decline, is increasing the frequency and severity of these events.
Climate change impacts that affected Syria could be a harbinger for other countries in the region. The connection between climate change and Syrian instability was first raised by our colleagues Francesco Femia and Caitlin Werrell in 2012, and confirmed by climate scientist and Center for Climate and Security Senior Fellow, Colin P. Kelley, and his colleagues, who linked the consequential 2007-2010 drought to a long-term warming trend in the eastern Mediterranean (finding that the drought was made 2-3 times more likely due to climate change).. Drought conditions as well as poorly-designed and discriminatory water policies implemented by the Assad regime and the Alawite elite were also factors that contributed to societal instability at the onset of the Syrian civil war. The regional climate model ALADIN corroborates previous studies projecting that the MENA region will continue to be a global hotspot for drought into the late twenty-first century.
(more…)Gen. Middendorp and Bergema: How Climate Change Fuels Violent Extremism
In an article published yesterday on the anniversary of 9/11 by the IPI Global Observatory, General Tom Middendorp, Chair of the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) and former Chief of Defence of the Netherlands, and Reinier Bergema of the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism, highlight the links between climate change, water insecurity, and violent extremism – particularly in “Western, Central, and Eastern Africa, and several countries in the Middle East.” The article is part of an article series that the IPI Global Observatory is publishing in advance of Climate Week in New York (watch this space for more). Click here for the full article.
Webinar: Climate Risk Reduction at the National and Sub-National Scale
Register now for a webinar on Monday, Oct. 26, “Climate Risk Reduction at the National and Sub-National Scale,” hosted by Arizona State University’s Global Security Initiative. The webinar speakers include: David V. Adams, Director for Health Security and Climate Resilience Policy at the National Security Council, who will speak about the United States; Commander David Slayton USN (Ret.), research fellow with the Hoover Institute who will explore the Arctic; Swathi Veeravalli, scientist with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, who will touch on Central and South Asia; and Francesco Femia and Caitlin Werrell, Founding Directors of the Center for Climate and Security, who will highlight the Middle East and North Africa. The webinar will be moderated by Chris Boone, Dean of the School of Sustainability at Arizona State University. See below for a full description of the webinar, and a link to register. (more…)