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BRIEFER: Litio 2040: Sustainably Developing Mexico’s Lithium from Ground to Grid
By Keith Lema, Ecological Security Fellow
Note: This briefer was drafted prior to the June 2024 Presidential Election in Mexico. The views expressed are the author’s own and not necessarily those of the U.S. Government
Executive Summary
In recent years, Mexico’s outgoing President, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), has sought to develop lithium resources in the state of Sonora. AMLO and many Mexican policymakers hope to leverage lithium to profit from the rapidly growing value chain of clean energy minerals and technology. Lithium-ion batteries, electric vehicles, and other clean energy technologies are attracting skyrocketing sums of capital. Global clean energy investment surpassed investment for fossil fuels in 2016 and by 2023, clean energy investment exceeded that for fossil fuels by over half a trillion dollars.1 This precipitous increase means that Mexico’s lithium reserves may become a crucial asset. However, to harness this resource responsibly, the nation must navigate the delicate balance between economic development and ecological security concerns.
Monetizing this resource is more complex than some Mexican policymakers would hope. Three issues should give Mexican policymakers pause. First, unregulated lithium mining can threaten local ecosystems through pollution and water loss. Second, drug cartels have a track record of co-opting other natural resources in Mexico to diversify their revenue streams. Thus, the potential wealth of lithium production could create security risks for Sonoran residents or workers operating lithium mines. Third, it will take a long time to produce lithium at commercial scale. There are significant economic risks that mining projects could fail to become cost-competitive. If Mexico and Sonoran residents face some ecological damage as a cost of lithium extraction, they should at least have a clear path to shared economic benefits. With a consequential Presidential Election in 2024, now is the time for Mexican political leaders to carefully analyze their options regarding lithium mining and ensure minimal damage to ecological security.
In this context, political leaders in Mexico and community leaders in Sonora should consider the following recommendations:
- Bring Lithium to the Public Square: A new president will be elected in June 2024. Both candidates should develop specific proposals for lithium development as part of a broader clean energy strategy and debate them.
- A Whole-of-Government Approach to Cartels: Cartel influence, violence, and corruption are transnational problems that Mexican leaders will still wrestle with in 2040. Stakeholders in Sonora’s lithium endowment must consider steps to thwart cartel efforts to profit from this critical mineral.
- Shared Benefits and Continual Stakeholder Consultation: Any future mining should adhere to international conventions for Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC). Given the poor track record of mining companies in the region, Federal authorities should establish and maintain a monitoring system to analyze water quality and quantity in the local watershed.
Top Climate Security Implications for Latin America: A Regional Breakdown
Severe flooding is one of many devastating effects of
climate change, as the Caribbean island nation Dominica experienced in
2011. Credit: Desmond Brown/IPS
By Lieutenant Commander Oliver-Leighton Barrett, U.S. Navy (ret) Senior Research Fellow, The Center for Climate and Security
From December 1-12, world leaders are meeting in Lima, Peru to lay the groundwork for a global agreement on climate change. But aside from being a setting for this round of international climate talks, the Latin American region is facing significant security and development threats from climate change that are not often reported.
Climate change is a stressor that will compound, and already is compounding, vexing preexisting developmental challenges across the regions’ states – testing governments to the limits of their capacities and affecting populations in diverse ways. While this “stressor” is becoming better appreciated by development stakeholders, a dimension that is not as well-appreciated is the impact climatic and environmental shifts will have on states’ security in general, and on the operations of regional militaries more specifically. Below is a sub-regional breakdown – a sort of “get to the point” compilation – of the implications of climate change on this growing, dynamic and increasingly relevant region of the globe. The compilation draws from and builds on a joint military assessment I contributed to as a consultant for U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM). The geographic categories below reflect a structure commonly used in the U.S defense sector. (more…)
A Flood of Flood Reports: A global list of recent events
In the past few weeks, we’ve noticed an unusual number of articles about significant flood events that are occurring, or have recently occurred, around the world. Though it is far too soon to determine whether or not these floods are associated with climate change, projections for global rainfall variability suggest that more extreme and unpredictable flooding is likely in our future. The first step in preparing for such a future is recognizing and calling attention to these extreme events, and their real human security implications. Such reports are easily lost in the shuffle of the daily news cycle, so we’ve compiled a comprehensive list below. (more…)
U.S., Canadian and Mexican Heads of State to Discuss Climate Change
President Obama will be hosting a North American summit with Prime Minister Stephen Harper of Canada and President Felipe Calderon of Mexico on April 2. According to the Washington Post, the leaders will discuss:
economic growth and competitiveness, security, energy and climate change. (more…)