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Modelling Climate Change Risks to a U.S. Air Force and Army Base

Sunlight peeks through the ceiling of Hanger 5 at Tyndall Air Force Base, damaged by Hurricane Michael [Times photo by Tailyr Irvine]

By Dr. Marc Kodack

As U.S. military installation planners incorporate climate change into their work, such as the development of installation master plans, they often draw on existing military sources of data and handbooks (see ArmyNavy) to prepare those plans. Planners may also incorporate findings from academic studies that are relevant, particularly if they include individual installations in the research. As an example, Tadić and Biraud (2020) from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory modeled what precipitation and maximum daily temperature would be for three, 30-year windows (2015-2035; 2035-2065; and 2085-2100) under two different emission scenarios for Travis Air Force Base, California, and Fort Bragg, North Carolina. Temperatures are forecast to rise across the three time periods in both emission scenarios for Travis from 1.1-to-2.70C (2-to-4.90F). Similarly, Fort Bragg temperatures are forecast to increase 0.9-to-2.20C (0.6-to-40F). Precipitation changes are weak for both scenarios across all time periods for both installations.


Climate Security In the U.S. Army’s Strategy 2025

Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Katherine Hammack, assistant secretary of the Army for installations, energy and environment, address questions after a ground-breaking ceremony for a renewable energy farm at Tooele Army Depot, Utah, Aug. 17, 2012. (Photo by D. Myles Cullen)

Army Gen. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Katherine Hammack, assistant secretary of the Army (IE&E), at a Tooele Army, Utah, renewable energy farm (Photo by D. Myles Cullen)

The U.S. Army’s Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Installations, Energy and Environment [OASA(IE&E)] released on Jan. 12, 2015 its “Strategy 2025.” According to the Army’s website, “OASA (IE&E) Strategy 2025 is important, as it serves to guide and shape the Army’s future and current actions related to Installations, Energy and Environment, as well as provide the strategic roadmap to achieve its vision.” Climate change is a part of this strategy. (more…)

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