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World Climate and Security Report 2024
A Product of the Expert Group of the International Military Council on Climate and Security
Authors: John Conger, Emil Havstrup, Laura Jasper, Lennaert Jonkers, Irina Patrahau, Sami Ramdani, Louise van Schaik, and Julia Tasse
Editors: Francesco Femia and Erin Sikorksy
Executive Summary
With climate impacts accelerating and the energy transition underway, militaries are increasingly considering the carbon footprint of their operations, infrastructure, and supply chains. Today, though there are gaps in measuring, reporting, and reducing these emissions, many countries already have initiatives to reduce their carbon footprint and improve the efficiency of their militaries.
This report analyzes the urgency of climate change for militaries and explores how military research and innovation might enable both emissions reduction and greater resilience of infrastructure and operations to climate impacts while improving the self-sufficiency of military units and facilities. While the report should be useful to militaries around the world, its recommendations focus on NATO member state militaries.
The report reveals a need for militaries to adopt a comprehensive approach to the climate challenge. This should include research and development (R&D) but also a wider range of policy and procurement changes. The climate crisis is not a challenge that can be solved by a single tool such as military R&D, but rather a broader set of partnerships, policies, and investments that make up a more complete sustainability toolbox.
There are, of course, limits to military research as a solution to climate mitigation and adaptation challenges. For example, when it comes to operational equipment, the decades-long lifecycle of this equipment means that large-scale implementation of new technologies will require an extended transition period. Progress is still important, but there is not a singular or immediate solution to meet emissions targets. Furthermore, military research focuses on mission-specific applications. While there are opportunities within this scope to explore resilience to climate impacts as a mission necessity (e.g. energy resilience on bases impacted by disasters), research on emissions reduction is much more likely to come out of commercial and civilian research efforts.
Yet, despite these constraints, addressing the environmental costs of militaries remains beneficial. Increased efficiency in energy use of platforms, even when incremental, has benefits both for operational capability and reduction of carbon footprint. Hybrid vehicles are a logical innovation that requires little to no change in supporting logistics systems and reduces the logistics burden. Artificial intelligence will increase efficiency, reduce costly accommodations for military personnel in vehicles, and potentially propel new avenues for research. It will be most effective to pursue decarbonization technologies that synergize with other advances that are occurring simultaneously. With these advances, gains in energy efficiency will also reduce the need to transport and secure fossil fuels, limit price volatility, increase self-sufficiency, and reduce environmental damages caused by fuel leaks or spills.
Research programs on technologies including, but not limited to, hybrid vehicles and energy use management by artificial intelligence provide pathways to innovations that will improve energy efficiency and the performance of systems in use. However, the best opportunities to reduce the military’s carbon footprint will be found in innovative procurement and policy approaches. While military research does not represent as large a portion of the global research enterprise as it once did, military procurement budgets remain extremely influential, often representing the single largest customer in their respective nations. As a result, acquisition choices can catalyze and steer markets toward particular policy outcomes even while prioritizing military missions.
After analyzing the urgency of climate change for the world’s militaries and assessing progress, shortfalls, and opportunities for emissions reduction and technology advancement in military operations, infrastructure, and supply chains, this report makes a few key recommendations.
- Approach military innovation in an integrated and time-sensitive way. In addition to innovating to achieve energy efficiency, militaries must adapt to the impacts of climate change. Technologies that serve both purposes should be prioritized. Adopting these technologies early will give militaries an edge in both operations and international and domestic reputation.
- Foster public-private partnerships to leverage civilian technological advances. Many useful innovations for the military will be made in the civilian sector, and militaries should support those advances. For example, given that fuel use, especially for aviation, is one of the largest sources of operational emissions, militaries should send strong market signals for sustainable aviation fuel.
- Set targets for infrastructure decarbonization and strategies for emissions monitoring and sustainable procurement. Clear emissions reduction targets and monitoring strategies are the first steps to achieving military infrastructure decarbonization, including for products in the military’s supply chain (scope 3 emissions). A key way to achieve these targets is for militaries to procure carbon-free electricity for fixed installations. This can be done through targeted power purchase agreements or through the broader greening of the electric grid. Notably, the technologies that will enable this electricity shift already exist commercially.
- Leverage education and training for climate literacy. Technological solutions are not enough: a climate-literate workforce is essential for transforming how militaries understand and respond to the opportunities and challenges arising from decarbonization. Given shared challenges and goals, there is an opportunity for NATO member state militaries, for example, to catalyze transnational cooperation on climate training.
- Incentivize the energy transition within military supply chains, leading to lower defense industry emissions. Procurement preferences for and investments into lower embedded carbon levels in the products militaries purchase could accelerate this transition. For example, the EU could give companies that demonstrate a clear commitment to achieving net zero through realistic targets access to more credit by reforming their taxonomy and lending practices.
Many of these recommendations can be encapsulated in one central tenet—acquisition and procurement innovation. To address the climate challenge, militaries will need to think fundamentally differently about how and what they buy. This encompasses procurement policy, process, and requirements that meet both mission and sustainability requirements. Military acquisition leaders should send this market signal to civilian and commercial energy researchers and catalyze clean energy research by committing to purchase the products that are developed.
By broadening the framing of innovation to encompass not only research programs but a fundamentally different way of managing military and defense organizations, military innovation can help reduce its impact on carbon emissions and help militaries confront the climate challenge.
The report concludes that military innovation can indeed make a significant contribution to addressing the climate challenge, but militaries need stronger partnerships with other government agencies, policymakers, and private industry to do so in a manner that’s adequately commensurate to the challenge.
New Book: ‘The Climate General’ Explores the Critical Link Between Climate Change and Global Security
Cross-posted from the Planetary Security Initiative
With the conclusion of COP28, renowned author and former Chief of Defence of the Dutch Armed Forces, General Tom Middendorp, is releasing a groundbreaking new book, The Climate General, shedding light on the profound connection between climate change and global security:
“COP28 focused more than ever on the role of fossil fuels in climate change, and we see just how complex and difficult the subject is for the international community to tackle. This is the first time in history that we need to replace one source of energy by another, instead of adding another source. It also took place against a backdrop of wars, which are extremely destructive in nature.
As a former service member I know what the price of war is. Where there is war, there is no room for climate mitigation and adaptation. This makes it imperative to work on both ends. Climate and conflicts are two sides of the same coin; we need security and stability to address climate change, while dealing with climate change can help reduce the conflict-sensitivity in fragile areas around the world.
So the pressing question, which is both simple and complex, is the following: How can the world cope with all these dangers simultaneously? How can we match the urgent with the important?”
In ‘The Climate General’, General Middendorp draws upon his extensive operational experience and deep knowledge of geopolitical dynamics to provide readers with a unique perspective on this complex issue. He demonstrates how climate-related conflicts, extremism, and migratory flows are interconnected in today’s world. Through captivating storytelling and meticulous research, he brings to light the challenges posed by climate change and presents a clear vision for a sustainable future. He advocates for a combination of mitigation and adaptation strategies, emphasizing the importance of technological advancements and collaboration in addressing climate security challenges.
“The Climate General provides invaluable insights and serves as a powerful catalyst for change,” said Audrey Carpentier, co-founder at Éditions La Butineuse. “General Middendorp not only brings attention to the urgency of the problem, but also presents practical solutions and strategies that have the potential to create a brighter future.”
“Today I lead a global network of security leaders from more than 40 countries, the IMCCS, supported by a consortium of research institutes. We all share a firm belief that climate change and security are closely related, as climate change leads to more insecurity and security is needed to address climate change. This requires us to join forces and tackle problems at the source in a more comprehensive way”, says Middendorp.
The Climate General is recommended for policymakers, academics, security specialists, and anyone concerned about the future of our global society and planet.
Pivoting Toward Climate Security: An Interview with Lt. Gen. Richard Nugee (ret.)
By Elsa Barron
Lieutenant General Richard Nugee (ret.) recently joined the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) as a senior advisor. He is the Non-Executive Director for Climate Change and Sustainability for the UK Government.
Previously, he spent a year leading the Climate Change and Sustainability Strategic Approach at the Ministry of Defence at the end of his 36-year military career. The following conversation reflects on his pivot toward climate security and his priorities and hopes for future action. It has been edited for length and clarity.
Elsa Barron: What led you to prioritize climate change toward the end of your military career?
Lt. Gen. Richard Nugee (ret.): I sat for four years on the executive committee of defense, and climate change wasn’t mentioned, sustainability wasn’t mentioned. I realized that actually, climate change was something that the UK military wasn’t really paying attention to. There were pockets of good practice. But broadly speaking, it wasn’t being considered on a daily basis, or on a yearly basis, or even on a review basis. And so I raised it as a subject and offered to do a report examining climate change and its effects on the military, and also the impact of the military on climate change.
There was a general feeling, and it’s very common military thinking, that we will adapt to whatever the environment is. At the end of the day, we’ll just deal with what comes, and I don’t think that is enough. When it comes to climate change, I think there are very significant opportunities for the military, but there are also circumstances that the military will find very difficult to navigate if they haven’t planned ahead. And so what I tried to do in the UK military was provoke a discussion and debate on the issue and present opportunities for action.
Barron: Are there elements of your on-the-ground experience throughout your career that have elevated your concern about climate change?
Nugee: One example is my experience as a battle group commander in southern Iraq. We didn’t have any air conditioning and we were living in the desert where generally, it’s a very dry heat averaging about 40-45 degrees Celsius, and you can mostly cope with that. But then things change for about two weeks of the year, they call it the cooker. For two weeks, the temperature rises to 50 to 55 degrees and the direction of the wind changes. Instead of coming off the dry deserts from the north, it comes from the south, and straight across the Gulf. As a result, you get 100% humidity at around 55 degrees Celsius and it’s almost unlivable.
What I saw was my soldiers literally trying to avoid doing anything because it was too hot. A lot of soldiers were in the hospital for short periods. A few of my soldiers went back to the UK with heatstroke. And this was them doing their jobs. And it struck me that we were unprepared. If that is an example of what climate change is going to do to certain parts of the world as they heat up, it is going to be very difficult.
There are other examples; in Afghanistan, the fact that the snow was melting faster than normal in the Hindu Kush, meant that there were floods coming down the valleys. Instead of a gentle trickle of water all year round, you get a huge flood and then you get nothing. And if you get nothing, you don’t have water for irrigation. What we found was that farmers were rapidly turning to the Taliban as a source of income. There was no ideology at all, a very high percentage of those joining the Taliban were fighting for money, they were fighting to put food on the table of their families because the Taliban paid them five dollars a day. I think it’s desperately sad that people would turn to the Taliban to fight when actually all they wanted was to have a job.
Barron: Climate change has long been underappreciated as a security threat. Yet even in just the past five years, the conversation has accelerated greatly within institutions like the UK MOD and NATO. What is your perspective on these developments?
Nugee: There’s a really good example of these issues being brought right to the forefront in Europe in the last year. That’s because Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has deliberately, in my view, weaponized energy. Why is that relevant to climate change? Because, actually, for once we have an alternative to gas, we have an alternative to oil, and that is renewable energy. By weaponizing energy, Putin has highlighted the energy security implications of reliance on oil and gas. And by doing that, he has, I hope, encouraged many to think of renewable energy as a viable and cheap alternative to fossil fuels. Europe ought to be doing everything it can to build up its energy security, and it’s now largely within our grasp.
NATO countries are beginning to take this more seriously. It’s all very well talking about it, it’s all very well having horizon scanning as to what’s happening, but that’s not enough. I think we need to act, we need to act as militaries to take advantage of technologies and persuade politicians to try and support others with access to fewer resources. We need to build a narrative that says it is in our interest to do so. I mean, I’m being very clear. This is about national security.
Barron: I’m curious, has there ever been a moment in your work when you’ve been surprised or challenged to change your perspective on something in light of the new challenges the world is facing?
Nugee: One thing which I suppose really surprised me was the huge flooding in Pakistan last year. It is, of course, not just climate change that has caused the floods in Pakistan. It’s a number of factors combined together. But actually, climate change has exacerbated the whole problem to the extent that a third of the country was underwater. Now, why is that a concern from a national security perspective? Because actually, what happened, and it happens in Bangladesh regularly with flooding, is that the military forces pick up the pieces and try and solve the problems that these floods cause. Well, if they are doing that, you have to ask, what are they not doing in terms of protecting their nation?
Barron: What are your hopes for the next generation of climate security leaders and what advice would you give them?
Nugee: So I think there are two elements to this. The first is to embrace the opportunities that combating climate change gives us in terms of new technologies and innovation. Why wouldn’t we want to embrace new technologies that are better for capabilities and also reduce emissions? Look through a sustainability lens on everything you do, and you will end up much more efficient and effective.
The second piece is to invest in climate resilience in countries abroad by providing training and supporting adaptation. This builds on the ability of our militaries to think strategically, which we’re usually quite good at. It is an opportunity to help countries cope with the effects of climate change, which ultimately builds up stability around the world- including in Europe.
CCS and IMCCS to Host Events on Food Security and the Clean Energy Transition at the Munich Security Conference
The Center for Climate and Security (CCS) and the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) in partnership with NATO look forward to hosting innovative conversations on key climate security issues, including food security and the clean energy transition, at the Munich Security Conference set to take place February 17-19, 2023.
Food Security
Climate change is a strategically significant security risk that will affect our most basic resources, including food, with potentially dire security ramifications. National and international security communities, including militaries and intelligence agencies, understand these risks and are taking action to anticipate them. However, progress in mitigating these risks will require deeper collaboration among the climate change, agriculture and food security, and national security communities through targeted research, policy development, and community building.
In order to address these challenges, CCS will host an interactive roundtable under the title “Feeding Climate Resilience: Mapping the Security Benefits of Agriculture and Climate Adaptation” with support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, featuring a high-level discussion aimed at identifying further areas of cooperation among these sectors and exploring possible areas for policy action.
The Clean Energy Transition
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent global energy crisis, coupled with the last few years of unprecedented extreme heat, droughts, and floods, have revealed a new, more complex security reality for NATO countries. Navigating this reality requires militaries to systematically recognize the opportunities and challenges that exist within the nexus between climate change and security, and the global clean energy transition.
The deterioration in Euro-Atlantic security will lead to increases in Alliance military procurement as well as the intensity of training, exercising, and patrolling. Such investment decisions can maintain and enhance operational effectiveness and collective defense requirements by taking advantage of the innovative solutions offered by the green energy transition that are designed for future operating environments while contributing to individual countries’ UNFCCC Paris Agreement commitments. However, it is also important to identify and mitigate new dependencies created by a switch from Russian fossil fuels to a critical minerals supply chain currently dominated by China and to think holistically about interoperability and other factors of relevance to the Alliance.
A roundtable discussion titled “Cleaner and Meaner: The Military Energy Transition by Design” and hosted by IMCCS and NATO will identify key opportunities to speed NATO militaries’ transition to clean energy, as well as challenges/obstacles that require cooperation and strategic planning across the Alliance. The conversation will seek to identify next steps for NATO countries, including through technological innovation and partnerships with the private sector, and builds on conversations about the implementation of climate security planning hosted by IMCCS and NATO at the 2022 conference.
Follow us here and on social media for more coming out of this year’s conversations at MSC.