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CCS Comments on the First National Nature Assessment Zero Order Draft

By Noah Fritzhand

Last month, the Center for Climate and Security (CCS) and its Ecological Security Program (ESP) had the opportunity to comment on the Zero Order Draft for the First National Nature Assessment (NNA1) prepared by the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), and is publishing its input here. Last year, CCS submitted public comments on the NNA1 Draft Prospectus and published a blog post about the input. As noted at the time, NNA1’s work to assess the status and trajectory of the US natural environment and the risks of its degradation marked an important step in evaluating broader ecological security issues in the US. This report will be similar in scope to National Climate Assessments published since 2000. 

CCS continues to broadly support the themes and framework of the Zero Order Draft, and looks forward to NNA1’s completion in 2026. As indicated in the comments, the USGCRP has included the majority of the recommendations CCS made on the Draft Prospectus and incorporated them into the new outline. While all twelve of the anticipated chapters of the NNA1 have implications for domestic and international security, Chapter 9: Nature and Risk, Resilience, and Security in the U.S. and Chapter 10: Nature and Climate Change in the U.S. have the most direct relation to the work of CCS and ESP.

Overall, CCS’s comments emphasize the importance of expanding the geographic focus of the NNA1 beyond domestic, publicly owned lands and including analysis on potential risks of maladaptation to human security and U.S. national security. Below are CCS’s specific comments under the aforementioned chapters.

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Call for Applications: Gordon R. Sullivan Climate and Ecological Security Fellowship 2024-2025

The Center for Climate and Security (CCS), an institute of the Council on Strategic Risks, is pleased to announce a call for applications for the 2024-2025 Gordon R. Sullivan Climate and Ecological Security Fellowship (Sullivan Fellowship)


The Sullivan Fellowship is the latest iteration of CCS’s fellowship programming, and is the preeminent opportunity of its kind to forge the next generation of climate-informed national security practitioners. It is named in honor of CCS Advisory Board Member General Gordon Sullivan, US Army (Ret.), who passed away in 2024 after a distinguished military career and was an early champion of integrating climate and environmental concerns in US national security.  

From hands-on exercises with peers across the national, international, and climate security communities to engaging with guest speakers at the top of the field, Sullivan Fellows form a powerful cadre of expert voices able to make propulsive policy changes. 

The Sullivan Fellowship will run for nine months (October 2024 – June 2025). Applicants will attend monthly two-hour sessions, some of which will be conducted virtually and some of which will be held in person at the CCS offices in Farragut Square (Washington, D.C.). Sessions will include small group presentations, guest speakers, and structured discussions exploring different aspects of climate security, such as climate finance, food and water security, military and intelligence services, and strategic competition.


Fellowship Details and Application Instructions

Eligibility: Applicants must be a US citizen. Have between one and five years of professional experience in the field of climate change, environment, and/or national/international security. Have a proven interest in pursuing a career related to the nexus of these fields. Be located in the Washington, D.C. metro region and able to attend regular in-person meetings.

Attendance: Fellows must attend and actively participate in at least seven out of nine fellowship sessions to use the credential “2024-2025 Sullivan Fellow” after the program ends. Fellows should plan to be available both virtually and in person on the third Thursday of every month from 6 p.m. to 8 p.m.

Application Instructions: All applicants should complete an application form (below) and provide a 1-page resume, 1-page cover letter, and a short response (200-400 words) to the following question: “What is a security risk related to climate change that you think is underappreciated by US policymakers, and why?”

Applications are due by 5 p.m. EDT on September 9, 2024.


CSR is an equal opportunity employer. We will not discriminate and will take affirmative action measures to ensure against discrimination in employment, recruitment, advertisements for employment, compensation, termination, upgrading, promotions, and other conditions of employment against any employee, job applicant, subcontractor, prospective subcontractor, volunteer or prospective volunteer on the bases of race, color, gender, national origin, age, religion, creed, disability, veteran status, sexual orientation, gender identity or gender expression.


Ecological Security Threats in North Africa for 2040: Water Scarcity and Desertification 


Introduction

Climate change is one of the world’s most prominent challenges, with serious impacts on food systems around the world. These impacts include low agricultural productivity, food insecurity due to water scarcity, and desertification. North Africa is considered a hot spot for climate change. A combination of water scarcity and desertification is taking its toll on many countries in the region, leaving many communities under stress. The region’s dry climate—getting increasingly drier due to climate change— is making the situation even worse. Countries in North Africa, including Tunisia, Libya, and Algeria, are experiencing different water scarcity and desertification levels, driven by multiple factors and amplified by political and economic constraints. This briefer delves into the multifaceted dimensions of water scarcity and desertification in the region, identifies key drivers of these challenges, and proposes key recommendations for addressing them before 2040.

Countries in the region must focus development on sustainable agriculture and enhanced water management by:

  • Reviving deserted lands, encouraging conservation in agriculture, and introducing irrigation techniques that would enhance water usage for agriculture, such as drip irrigation
  • Investing in drought-resistant crops and wastewater recycling plants
  • Promoting enhanced business-oriented community-based initiatives centered on the environment and community resilience through capacity building and training programs
  • Adopting a holistic approach to better water resource usage and land conservation practices to protect available arable land.
  • Developing policies to incorporate technological advancement in food and water security

Sleeper Species: Increasing Threats to Great Lakes’ Ecological Security and What to Do About It


Introduction

Biological invasions—the establishment and spread of non-native species in new regions—is one of the greatest threats to the ecological security of the Great Lakes basin, which spans the United States and Canada.1 The threat lies with the ability of a non-native introduced species to become invasive—to spread aggressively and cause undesirable impacts to the environment, economy, and human health.2 However, not all non-native introduced species become invasive, at least not immediately. There can be a time lag between introduction, establishment, and harm, dictated by some local environmental condition (e.g., temperature or precipitation) that limits or suppresses the non-native species. When a shift in that environmental condition occurs, perhaps driven by changes in climate, nutrients, or water levels, a threshold may be breached, triggering an eruption in the once-inconspicuous (i.e., “sleeping”) non-native population. Once this biotic eruption has occurred, the newly invasive species may destabilize the local ecosystem, potentially even tipping an entire ecological system into an alternative state.3 Major changes or state shifts in ecosystems resulting from species invasions can undermine biodiversity, food, and economic security and even increase exposure to zoonotic diseases.4

The potential for non-native species to meet the “sleeper” definition is growing as climate change drives more frequent and intense fluctuations in weather events, thus providing conditions for these species to erupt. Consequently, management might require a new suite of special monitoring and response capabilities. However, the unpredictable nature of sleeper species makes it difficult for land and water resource managers to prioritize funds and conservation activities to predict and counter invasion potential. For instance, species introductions can occur in small batches and isolated areas, and species need time before they can establish populations large enough to be noticed.

Even if natural resource managers know that a non-native species is present, the complexity of how that species interacts with the environment makes it extremely difficult to pinpoint exactly how or when it may become invasive. Understanding what environmental factors currently suppress the species’ population would bring resource managers closer to identifying potential tipping points that would release the sleeper, enabling invasion (Fig. 1).5 This management complexity grows when also accounting for the variety of ways species are introduced to new regions.

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