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Ecological Security Threats in North Africa for 2040: Water Scarcity and Desertification
By Malak Altaeb, Ecological Security Fellow
Introduction
Climate change is one of the world’s most prominent challenges, with serious impacts on food systems around the world. These impacts include low agricultural productivity, food insecurity due to water scarcity, and desertification. North Africa is considered a hot spot for climate change. A combination of water scarcity and desertification is taking its toll on many countries in the region, leaving many communities under stress. The region’s dry climate—getting increasingly drier due to climate change— is making the situation even worse. Countries in North Africa, including Tunisia, Libya, and Algeria, are experiencing different water scarcity and desertification levels, driven by multiple factors and amplified by political and economic constraints. This briefer delves into the multifaceted dimensions of water scarcity and desertification in the region, identifies key drivers of these challenges, and proposes key recommendations for addressing them before 2040.
Countries in the region must focus development on sustainable agriculture and enhanced water management by:
- Reviving deserted lands, encouraging conservation in agriculture, and introducing irrigation techniques that would enhance water usage for agriculture, such as drip irrigation
- Investing in drought-resistant crops and wastewater recycling plants
- Promoting enhanced business-oriented community-based initiatives centered on the environment and community resilience through capacity building and training programs
- Adopting a holistic approach to better water resource usage and land conservation practices to protect available arable land.
- Developing policies to incorporate technological advancement in food and water security
Sleeper Species: Increasing Threats to Great Lakes’ Ecological Security and What to Do About It
By Chris Bobryk, Ecological Security Fellow
Introduction
Biological invasions—the establishment and spread of non-native species in new regions—is one of the greatest threats to the ecological security of the Great Lakes basin, which spans the United States and Canada.1 The threat lies with the ability of a non-native introduced species to become invasive—to spread aggressively and cause undesirable impacts to the environment, economy, and human health.2 However, not all non-native introduced species become invasive, at least not immediately. There can be a time lag between introduction, establishment, and harm, dictated by some local environmental condition (e.g., temperature or precipitation) that limits or suppresses the non-native species. When a shift in that environmental condition occurs, perhaps driven by changes in climate, nutrients, or water levels, a threshold may be breached, triggering an eruption in the once-inconspicuous (i.e., “sleeping”) non-native population. Once this biotic eruption has occurred, the newly invasive species may destabilize the local ecosystem, potentially even tipping an entire ecological system into an alternative state.3 Major changes or state shifts in ecosystems resulting from species invasions can undermine biodiversity, food, and economic security and even increase exposure to zoonotic diseases.4
The potential for non-native species to meet the “sleeper” definition is growing as climate change drives more frequent and intense fluctuations in weather events, thus providing conditions for these species to erupt. Consequently, management might require a new suite of special monitoring and response capabilities. However, the unpredictable nature of sleeper species makes it difficult for land and water resource managers to prioritize funds and conservation activities to predict and counter invasion potential. For instance, species introductions can occur in small batches and isolated areas, and species need time before they can establish populations large enough to be noticed.
Even if natural resource managers know that a non-native species is present, the complexity of how that species interacts with the environment makes it extremely difficult to pinpoint exactly how or when it may become invasive. Understanding what environmental factors currently suppress the species’ population would bring resource managers closer to identifying potential tipping points that would release the sleeper, enabling invasion (Fig. 1).5 This management complexity grows when also accounting for the variety of ways species are introduced to new regions.
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Pest and Pathogen Threats to Food Security
By Molly Gallagher, Ecological Security Fellow
Executive Summary
Pests and pathogens impacting essential agricultural products pose a significant threat to the future of food security. Critical food sources are at risk worldwide due to pest and pathogen attacks.1 Globalization increases the risk of invasive pest and pathogen species, which can rapidly take hold in regions with crop plants already subject to significant climate stressors. The interacting impacts of climate change and globalization can be unpredictable and are expected to cause additional strain on the food supply.2
Over the next two decades, we must intervene to protect the global food supply from pests and pathogens. Technologies to detect their presence are needed. These early warning systems may be applied during the growth phase of crop plants and should also be developed for screening imports. Standoff and low-cost detection should be deployed domestically and internationally to enhance surveillance. Furthermore, we must invest in basic research under a One Health framework to enable improved analytics and threat forecasting to guide optimal mitigation efforts. Finally, it is critical that we strengthen relationships across regions to coordinate quarantine and control efforts long-term.
BRIEFER: Litio 2040: Sustainably Developing Mexico’s Lithium from Ground to Grid
By Keith Lema, Ecological Security Fellow
Note: This briefer was drafted prior to the June 2024 Presidential Election in Mexico. The views expressed are the author’s own and not necessarily those of the U.S. Government
Executive Summary
In recent years, Mexico’s outgoing President, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), has sought to develop lithium resources in the state of Sonora. AMLO and many Mexican policymakers hope to leverage lithium to profit from the rapidly growing value chain of clean energy minerals and technology. Lithium-ion batteries, electric vehicles, and other clean energy technologies are attracting skyrocketing sums of capital. Global clean energy investment surpassed investment for fossil fuels in 2016 and by 2023, clean energy investment exceeded that for fossil fuels by over half a trillion dollars.1 This precipitous increase means that Mexico’s lithium reserves may become a crucial asset. However, to harness this resource responsibly, the nation must navigate the delicate balance between economic development and ecological security concerns.
Monetizing this resource is more complex than some Mexican policymakers would hope. Three issues should give Mexican policymakers pause. First, unregulated lithium mining can threaten local ecosystems through pollution and water loss. Second, drug cartels have a track record of co-opting other natural resources in Mexico to diversify their revenue streams. Thus, the potential wealth of lithium production could create security risks for Sonoran residents or workers operating lithium mines. Third, it will take a long time to produce lithium at commercial scale. There are significant economic risks that mining projects could fail to become cost-competitive. If Mexico and Sonoran residents face some ecological damage as a cost of lithium extraction, they should at least have a clear path to shared economic benefits. With a consequential Presidential Election in 2024, now is the time for Mexican political leaders to carefully analyze their options regarding lithium mining and ensure minimal damage to ecological security.
In this context, political leaders in Mexico and community leaders in Sonora should consider the following recommendations:
- Bring Lithium to the Public Square: A new president will be elected in June 2024. Both candidates should develop specific proposals for lithium development as part of a broader clean energy strategy and debate them.
- A Whole-of-Government Approach to Cartels: Cartel influence, violence, and corruption are transnational problems that Mexican leaders will still wrestle with in 2040. Stakeholders in Sonora’s lithium endowment must consider steps to thwart cartel efforts to profit from this critical mineral.
- Shared Benefits and Continual Stakeholder Consultation: Any future mining should adhere to international conventions for Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC). Given the poor track record of mining companies in the region, Federal authorities should establish and maintain a monitoring system to analyze water quality and quantity in the local watershed.