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Climate Intervention at High Latitudes: A 2030 Security Scenario


Overview

The effects of climate change are already posing significant security challenges worldwide. Extreme weather regularly destroys lives, livelihoods, and critical infrastructure; warming temperatures affect food and water security, amplifying fragility and cross-border tensions. Governments are increasingly attuned to the risks of instability, tensions, or even conflict in climate-changed geographies, including in the Arctic. Against this backdrop, scientists also warn that key climate tipping points, or systems-level irreversible changes, are fast-approaching, including the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, the reversal of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and faster-than-expected permafrost thaw.

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MiRCH Roundup November 2025 – January 2026: Militaries Scramble Across South and South-East Asia to Respond to Back-to-Back Disasters

By Noah Fritzhand

From November 2025 through January 2026, the Military Responses to Climate Hazards (MiRCH) tracker documented 41 military deployments in 15 countries to address climate hazards. As 2025 wound down, countries in South and Southeast Asia were slammed by typhoons and devastating flooding. Notably, multiple militaries also deployed to assist Sri Lanka in the wake of Cyclone Ditwah, which Sri Lankan leaders have called the “largest and most challenging natural disaster” in their history.

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Food Trade Chokepoints & US National Security in 2040

By Sarah Danon, Saro Naomi Gakusi, Ivette Povis Landa, Jane Pan, and Claire Reichle
Edited by Caroline Baxter, Lily Boland, and Francesco Femia


Executive Summary

This study examines how the intersection of climate, geopolitical, and security threats can intensify vulnerabilities surrounding critical chokepoints in the global food trade system, and posits that these converging risks not only threaten global food security but also drive systemic threats to US national security. A strategic foresight approach is used to examine plausible future scenarios for global food trade and explore potential chokepoint disruptions and their cascading risks. The analysis concludes that maintaining secure maritime food trade is vital to US national security and provides recommendations to mitigate trade disruption and promote food security.

State Level Climate Security Briefers: Colorado, Hawaii, and Washington

CCS has released the latest in a series of subnational climate security briefers focused on the US states Colorado, Hawaii, and Washington. Each state faces a range of risks to lives, critical infrastructure, military bases, and local economies from intensifying extreme weather and climate hazards. Federal agencies, particularly the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), provide critical support to these states to help manage these risks. That support has, in some cases, already been cut by the Administration or is facing further proposed cuts. 

Read the Briefers here:

State Level Climate Security Education: Colorado 

By Madeline Craig-Scheckman and Haidi Al-Shabrawey

State Level Climate Security Education: Hawai’i 

By Jessica Kēhaulani Wong

State Level Climate Security Education: Washington

By Natalie Fiertz