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Climate Security Policy Recommendations for the New Administration
By Erin Sikorsky, Caroline Baxter, Siena Cicarelli, John Conger, and Tom Ellison
Introduction
In the past year, the United States, its allies, and partners have faced unprecedented floods, wildfires, and heatwaves that caused thousands of deaths and billions of dollars worth of destruction and required the deployment of tens of thousands of troops. These hazards affect US foreign and security policy through multiple pathways, from the direct impacts on critical infrastructure and military resilience, to the amplifying effects on state fragility and conflict risk, food and water security, and geopolitical competition. The US Congress was prescient in warning of these risks in the FY2020 National Defense Authorization Act, signed into law by President Trump during his first term, in which climate security was defined as “the effects of climate change on the following: (A) The national security of the United States, including national security infrastructure; (B) Subnational, national, and regional political stability; (C) The security of allies and partners of the United States; (D) Ongoing or potential political violence, including unrest, rioting, guerrilla warfare, insurgency, terrorism, rebellion, revolution, civil war, and interstate war.”
“Now What?”Addressing the Climate-Gender-Security Nexus at NATO
By Siena Cicarelli and Cori Fleser
Edited by Francesco Femia and Erin Sikorsky
Introduction
At the 2021 Brussels Summit, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) endorsed its first-ever Climate Change and Security Action Plan,1 with the aim to “mainstream climate considerations into NATO’s political and military agenda.”2 The Action Plan focuses on four key areas – (1) awareness to understand the impact of climate change on NATO’s strategic environment, missions, and operations; (2) adaptation by incorporating climate considerations into NATO’s core tasks; (3) mitigation by helping Allies reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from their respective militaries; and (4) outreach with its partner countries, other international organizations, civil society, and industry to enhance the global response to climate change. Notably, NATO calls out the need to include gender perspectives as part of its climate change awareness efforts in the context of NATO’s Women, Peace and Security (WPS) policy.3 NATO began formally recognizing gender issues4 and environmental challenges5 in 1961 and 1969, respectively, but 2021 appears to be the first time NATO has officially acknowledged the intersection of these two global agendas, emphasizing the need for allied militaries to understand the “climate, gender, and security” nexus.
The climate, gender, and security nexus calls attention to “the linkages between climate change and conflict and how gender is a cross-cutting lens through which people experience both issues.”6 This nexus amplifies how the impacts of climate change, either slow-onset events like sea level rise and desertification or sudden-onset events like floods and droughts, have gendered implications for local populations and can also precipitate conflict that exacerbates existing gender inequality.7
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BRIEFER: Litio 2040: Sustainably Developing Mexico’s Lithium from Ground to Grid
By Keith Lema, Ecological Security Fellow
Note: This briefer was drafted prior to the June 2024 Presidential Election in Mexico. The views expressed are the author’s own and not necessarily those of the U.S. Government
Executive Summary
In recent years, Mexico’s outgoing President, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), has sought to develop lithium resources in the state of Sonora. AMLO and many Mexican policymakers hope to leverage lithium to profit from the rapidly growing value chain of clean energy minerals and technology. Lithium-ion batteries, electric vehicles, and other clean energy technologies are attracting skyrocketing sums of capital. Global clean energy investment surpassed investment for fossil fuels in 2016 and by 2023, clean energy investment exceeded that for fossil fuels by over half a trillion dollars.1 This precipitous increase means that Mexico’s lithium reserves may become a crucial asset. However, to harness this resource responsibly, the nation must navigate the delicate balance between economic development and ecological security concerns.
Monetizing this resource is more complex than some Mexican policymakers would hope. Three issues should give Mexican policymakers pause. First, unregulated lithium mining can threaten local ecosystems through pollution and water loss. Second, drug cartels have a track record of co-opting other natural resources in Mexico to diversify their revenue streams. Thus, the potential wealth of lithium production could create security risks for Sonoran residents or workers operating lithium mines. Third, it will take a long time to produce lithium at commercial scale. There are significant economic risks that mining projects could fail to become cost-competitive. If Mexico and Sonoran residents face some ecological damage as a cost of lithium extraction, they should at least have a clear path to shared economic benefits. With a consequential Presidential Election in 2024, now is the time for Mexican political leaders to carefully analyze their options regarding lithium mining and ensure minimal damage to ecological security.
In this context, political leaders in Mexico and community leaders in Sonora should consider the following recommendations:
- Bring Lithium to the Public Square: A new president will be elected in June 2024. Both candidates should develop specific proposals for lithium development as part of a broader clean energy strategy and debate them.
- A Whole-of-Government Approach to Cartels: Cartel influence, violence, and corruption are transnational problems that Mexican leaders will still wrestle with in 2040. Stakeholders in Sonora’s lithium endowment must consider steps to thwart cartel efforts to profit from this critical mineral.
- Shared Benefits and Continual Stakeholder Consultation: Any future mining should adhere to international conventions for Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC). Given the poor track record of mining companies in the region, Federal authorities should establish and maintain a monitoring system to analyze water quality and quantity in the local watershed.
The Security Implications of Human-Driven Biotic Eruptions
By Michael R. Zarfos
Edited by Andrea Rezzonico and Francesco Femia
Introduction
Human society benefits from environmental and biological predictability. Farmers expect to be able to plant a particular species and variety of crop that will survive and thrive in the soils and under the climate conditions that are typical of their given region.1 They have systems in place to manage the different pests and diseases that are typical of their environment. Hunters, foresters, and fishers all rely on sustainable stocks of specific species to enable their livelihoods. Similarly, each type of ecosystem exists within an envelope of predictable environmental conditions.2
This equilibrium extends beyond the nonliving (abiotic) inputs to the system (e.g., water, heat, and nutrients) to include its living (biotic) components—its native species and pathogens. A newly introduced species may come to dominate the system as its population explodes, leading to local extinctions.3 Similarly, a native species stimulated by climate change or nutrient pollution can grow out of control, drastically altering the local environment and the services people derive from it.4 These complex interactions represent a category of potential tipping point, what we term human-driven “biotic eruptions,” which can severely disrupt the world we live in and undermine our security. Policymakers should consider these biotic eruptions in a global security context, and take actions accordingly.
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