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The Security Implications of Omitting Climate Change from Federal Water Availability Forecasts
By Marc Kodack
The U.S. Presidential Memorandum, Promoting the Reliable Supply and Delivery of Water in the West (October 19, 2018), directed the Secretaries of Commerce and Interior to “develop an action plan to improve the information and modeling capabilities related to water availability and water infrastructure projects…” The action plan was released last month and “defines individual and joint agency activities to improve the modeling and forecasting capabilities related to water availability and water infrastructure projects.” There is, however, a glaring omission. While there are three uses of the term “climate” in the action plan, “climate change” is not mentioned in the plan or any of its proposed or completed actions. Accurately forecasting water availability fails without integrating climatic change effects into those forecasts, particularly in the context of the climate-vulnerable Western United States. Ignoring this key influence on current and future water availability deprives federal agencies, including the Department of Defense (DoD), of critical information, leading to skewed strategic planning results with potentially significant consequences for national security. (more…)
Report: The Responsibility to Prepare and Prevent – A New Climate Security Governance Framework
A quick read of daily headlines makes it increasingly clear that current governance structures are not fully prepared for the security risks of a changing climate. In response to these mounting risks, the Center for Climate and Security, an institute of the Council on Strategic Risks, is releasing a report calling for a framework for using our unprecedented foresight capabilities to anticipate and prevent the unprecedented security risks of climate change. Titled The Responsibility to Prepare and Prevent (R2P2): A Climate Security Governance Framework for the 21st Century, authors Caitlin Werrell and Francesco Femia identify three critical gaps in the international governance of climate security risks that have stalled preparedness and prevention. The report also offers three concrete proposals for filling those gaps to make sure the world avoids the worst of these risks on the horizon. Click here for the full report, and see below for the Executive Summary.
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General Castellaw on Devastating New Sea Level Rise Exposure Projections
Sea level projections for Basra, Iraq. Source: Kulp, S.A., Strauss, B.H. New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding. Nat Commun 10, 4844 (2019)
A new study by Climate Central’s Scott Kulp and Benjamin Strauss, published in the prestigious Nature Communications, finds that populated coastlines around the world are three times more exposed to sea level rise than previously thought, which has the potential to almost completely inundate major coastal cities around the world. The potential security implications of the loss of these major coastal urban areas are enormous. In an article covering the new report, the New York Times spoke with the Center for Climate and Security’s Lieutenant General John Castellaw, US Marine Corps (Ret), about projections for the important coastal city of Basra in Iraq. From the article:
Basra, the second-largest city in Iraq, could be mostly underwater by 2050. If that happens, the effects could be felt well beyond Iraq’s borders, according to John Castellaw, a retired Marine Corps lieutenant general who was chief of staff for United States Central Command during the Iraq War.
Further loss of land to rising waters there “threatens to drive further social and political instability in the region, which could reignite armed conflict and increase the likelihood of terrorism,” said General Castellaw, who is now on the advisory board of the Center for Climate and Security, a research and advocacy group in Washington.
“So this is far more than an environmental problem,” he said. “It’s a humanitarian, security and possibly military problem too.”
Read the full sea level rise study here.
Climate Change, Wildfires, the Military and Artificial Intelligence
Kincade Fire, seen by NOAA’s GOES West on Oct. 24, 2019, covering 10,000 acres
By Marc Kodack
In the western United States, climate change is increasing the risk of wildfires, such as the ongoing Kincade Fire that is devastating northern California. This is in part because increased temperatures driven by greenhouse gas emissions are drying out available fuels for fires. As we’re seeing today, when ignition occurs under these conditions, fires can become extraordinarily challenging for local communities and first responders to manage. (more…)