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Five Climate Security Angles to Consider at the Climate Change Conference in Sharm el-Sheikh
By Erin Sikorsky and Brigitte Hugh
As the 27th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change kicks off in Egypt next week, a wide range of climate change issues will be discussed. Wondering how these discussions connect to or impact security? CCS has you covered with some reading suggestions.(more…)
Read, Watch, Listen: CCS Across the Web | September 2022
Welcome to “Read, Watch, Listen” from the Center for Climate and Security (CCS), a monthly round-up highlighting some of the articles, interviews, and podcasts featuring the CCS network of experts.
Over the summer, governments across the globe deployed military forces to fight fires and respond to drought. As fire season winds down and hurricane season begins, militaries are once again being called upon to respond to climate-worsened threats. These are only the latest examples of climate shifting traditional military missions, and one of the issues highlighted by our experts in September.
- Militaries around the world are being deployed in response to non-traditional threats from climate crises, writes Director Erin Sikorsky. (Foreign Policy)
- Non Resident Research Fellow, Cullen Hendrix, took a look at the connections between the most recent food and oil crises and Russia’s foreign and domestic policy. (Foreign Policy)
Video and Podcast
- Sikorsky spoke with David Priess about the Pakistan floods and the direct and indirect security impacts. (Lawfare)
- Sea level rise is already threatening coastal U.S.military bases. Though the military is working to address the issue, adaptation projects are lengthy efforts, says Sikorsky. (Weather Channel)
- Sikorsky and advisory board members Gen. Tom Middendorp (ret.) and Alice Hill note that world militaries are not prepared for the increased demand for their aid in response to climate change impacts. (Washington Post)
- The U.S. Department of Defense announced the creation of a new office focused on the Arctic and global resilience. A move welcomed by Senior Strategist, Sherri Goodman, who noted that the new office will help “maintain mission readiness.” (Arctic Today)
- Research Fellow Elsa Barron was featured in the Christian Science Monitor, with a focus on her climate activism and faith journey.
Keep up with all the work being done by the experts from the Center for Climate and Security by following us on Twitter and LinkedIn and subscribing to our blog.
Just and Comprehensive Action on Climate Security in Australia and Beyond: An Interview with Cheryl Durrant
By Elsa Barron
The Australian Security Leaders Climate Group (ASLCG), a partner of the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS), is working to reframe the climate debate in Australia to address the multifaceted security risks posed by climate change. The group recently released its second report, an Australian Climate and Security Risk Assessment Implementation Proposal. I spoke with Cheryl Durrant, an executive member of the ASLCG and former Director of Preparedness & Mobilization at the Australian Department of Defense, about this report and the path towards just and comprehensive action on climate security risks for Australia and beyond.
Elsa Barron: How did you initially become concerned about the intersection between climate change and security challenges? How did that concern evolve over the course of your career and ultimately lead to the creation of the ASLCG?
Cheryl Durrant: Curiously, I am a military historian and I first understood the relationship between climate and security when I was studying the collapse of middle-American civilizations, which was partly an environmental collapse. That was my start, but I really became aware of the urgency and extremity of the current climate change crisis in 2012 when I commissioned a piece of work from our [The Australian] Defense Science and Technology Group on global change. From all of the global challenges presented in the report, climate change leapt out as different from the others in three ways: pervasiveness, probability, and scale. Climate change was happening everywhere, it was almost certain, and it had the potential to destroy civilizations and cause probable extinction if left unchecked.
Barron: I’m curious, in addition to your own journey and interest, how have you seen the security community approach the connection between climate change?
Durrant: I think there are two strands to it. One is based on the ground. When we started going out and talking about climate change at international conferences and with other militaries, we constantly heard the same story: that the soldiers have already grasped this concept from the ground up. They are in the same training range every year and the landscape is changing. Soldiers and sailors are some of the most profound supporters of this work because they are in it every day.
Then there is the second strand which is a more theoretical analysis of climate change as a geopolitical security challenge. This issue poses a dilemma for security professionals because it is a problem that is without boundaries. It doesn’t follow standard geopolitical thinking. You can’t think of it as a traditional enemy, because you contribute to it as well. You can’t fight yourself because you’re putting carbon in the atmosphere.
Barron: Last year, ASLCG published its inaugural report titled, “Missing in Action: Responding to Australia’s Climate & Security Failure.” What has guided the progression from that report to the release of your most recent, solutions-oriented report, “Australian Climate & Security Risk Assessment?”
Durrant: If you see action on climate change as a campaign, which is a framing we are used to in the military, then the first step of that campaign is to get the government and the people of Australia to connect climate change to security. Then, they can recognize that action is needed and take steps towards that action. The ASLCG has been in the raising awareness step. Now we’ve largely accomplished the goal of that first step: the current government has adopted our policy suggestion of integrating a climate risk assessment. Now, we are in the second phase of the campaign which is moving from awareness to understanding and action.
When I started seriously looking into this problem in 2012, the general thinking was that we weren’t going to see catastrophic climate security impacts until 2100 or later. By 2015, we were concerned that we might see those catastrophic effects by mid-century. Now, we are seeing catastrophic effects for some parts of the planet already – horrific events this summer in Europe, Africa, South Asia, Australia, and North America. The time horizon we have to take action is really very short.
With our most recent report, we are recommending a broad risk assessment because that is a way to engage not only government, but also business, think tanks, and the general community to understand we are in a crisis mode. Unless everyone understands we are in crisis mode, then people aren’t prepared to make the sacrifices that a crisis mode entails. The response to the climate crisis will not be a smooth path, it will be a bumpy path and we need a mindset change to understand how urgent, how large, and how globally interconnected the climate risks that we face really are.
Barron: ASLCG’s report argues that existential risks must be treated differently in policy-making than standard risks. How does this apply to climate security risks? Are there examples of low-probability yet high-impact risks that should be given more attention?
Durrant: From my perspective, there are probably two major existential risks we should be thinking about and they’re interconnected. Existential risk indicates the possibility of civilization collapse or human extinction. This kind of risk is not really comparable to something like an economic decline of 10 percent; it’s an entirely different scale and you really have to get your head around the gravity of that difference.
The two risks that I elevate to this level are climate change and nuclear conflict. These carry the potential to cause human extinction or civilization collapse to such an extent that it might never come back again. They’re also connected because climate change escalates the risk of conflict and the fear of nuclear war is putting a break on some of the international cooperation we want to see around climate change. These two risks are now circling and exacerbating each other. There is a whole range of other existential risks like super volcano eruptions or solar events, but humanity has less capacity to control those risks. Let’s focus on the two that we can act on.
Barron: How do you communicate this level of risk? You mentioned that communication is often focused on hope because it is more empowering to people, so how do you really communicate the scale of risk in a way that is effective at galvanizing action?
Durrant: Risk is best communicated through lived experience. I already mentioned the soldier who feels the impacts of climate change in his bones as he’s losing his Christmases because he has to keep responding to fires. The bush that he loves and appreciates because he’s been training in it for 30 years is changing. He doesn’t see the little animals or birds he normally sees. It’s deeply felt and understood. It’s not an intellectual thing, it’s an experience of the heart.
That’s why in our approach to the integrated risk assessment, we wanted to go further than pure analysis. We won’t change minds through glossy reports, we’ll do it by sitting down face-to-face with people. I see an amazing connection between the ecological security work that the IMCCS is doing and permaculture movements. Call it what you want– ecological security, environmental justice, intergenerational responsibility– but the goals are the same. It’s important to connect these movements together rather than separate them if we want to create change.
That requires the thinkers and leaders, such as the security leaders, to go humbly amongst the public and have their one-on-one, face-to-face, small group conversation and build the movement from the bottom-up. Ultimately, we need a social tipping point. Yes, physically it is a problem of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But, in terms of the human cause and response, it’s a social movement challenge. Without a social tipping point, I don’t see our action being quick enough or big enough to avert a worsening crisis.
Barron: The ASLCG report advocates using scenarios methodology for carrying out a risk assessment. In the case of Australia, what parties should be brought into scenario planning to conduct a thorough analysis of climate security?
Durrant: It’s important that scenarios are an immersive experience. In order to create that immersion, I think there are three main groups that are important: security professionals, climate science and sector impact experts (e.g. economy, health, environment, infrastructure), and community and civic groups. I think it’s really important to bring these groups all together. By design, the assessment will help information to flow from the bottom-up.
These integrated scenarios provide opportunities for creativity, for example, imagining plausible utopias. How do we rethink international security and creatively imagine the rules of a different world? I think this creativity is really important because the right-brained thinkers– the intelligence officers and the security analysts– are very good at dystopias but not very good at utopias. I think bringing the creative arts, storytelling sector, and other strange bedfellows for the security world into the conversation is important for addressing this multifaceted crisis.
We also need diverse groups to solve diverse planetary problems. The answer to an African problem might be from an Indian solution and the answer to an American problem might come from a Nordic solution and the answer to an Australian problem might come from a Chinese solution, so we can’t afford to not share the solutions. It’s also important to get youth and other groups involved that also come with unique skills and perspectives.
Barron: I completely agree with your points on diversity and also youth engagement, do you see that as a part of the positive social tipping point we’re working towards?
Durrant: Yes, and it’s people coming with their authentic voices as well. We have a certain paradigm that can be reductionist, patriarchal, and capitalist. There are many assumptions that are deeply embedded in how we think. Women’s voices, Indigenous voices, non-Western voices, and youth voices are not captive in that paradigm.
Certain rules of thinking tend to run very deep in the security community. Traditionally, security is about a bad guy, whereas the climate crisis doesn’t really have a clearly defined adversary. That means there is a whole body of learning you need to put aside in order to think differently, and it’s a very hard transformation to make. Our mindset for dealing with problems doesn’t often get to the root cause.
Barron: What is at stake for Australia if it falls behind its allies and partners in getting to those root causes? In contrast, what opportunities exist if Australia steps up its commitment to combating these challenges?
Durrant: I’ll start with the opportunities. Australia can be a leader because, uniquely among the western alliance, it’s very rich in renewable energy resources and also agricultural resources; it’s a net exporter. Even with its major climate vulnerabilities, the biocapacity of the Australian continent to continue to produce food is substantial. When the world starts to get short of food and needs secure access to critical minerals, Australia can be there. Australia also has masses of nuclear, hydrogen, wind, and solar energy so it’s actually really well poised to be a renewable energy superpower.
Australia has a choice in how to use this power. It can choose to perpetrate great power to control and shape the world in our favor. Or, it can use its force to address social justice concerns and provide resources to those who need them most. We have to think globally and not just locally and transform the mindset from thinking “oh we’re lucky we don’t have to work too hard”, to thinking “wow, we’re fortunate, we can help others and lead the transition.” Some of that shift is evident in the government’s efforts. They are seeing that they can be a force for good and need to choose that path.
Read about the ASLCG’s first report, “Missing in Action,” here.
Monkeypox and the Convergence of Climate, Ecological, and Biological Security Risks
By Brigitte Hugh, Lillian Parr, and Dr. Dan Regan
A recent study published in Nature found that 218 of the 375 infectious diseases that have impacted humanity have been exacerbated by climate hazards intensified by greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, the study highlighted that there are over 1,000 pathways in which climatic hazards can lead to disease outbreaks, which powerfully demonstrates the inextricable relationship between climate change and health security.
As the most recently declared Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization, monkeypox is a timely case study which demonstrates how climate change and ecological disruption exacerbate the threat of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases through two mechanisms: increasing the likelihood of outbreaks and making outbreak response more challenging. The added complications from equity issues, governmental challenges, and struggling healthcare systems highlight the security risks at the nexus of climate change, ecological degradation, and biological threats that states must face in the years to come.
The Origin and Spread of Monkeypox
Limited to the Congo Basin when the first human case was documented in 1970, monkeypox is now endemic within 10 countries in Central and Western Africa. By 2010, experts warned that monkeypox was increasing by significant margins, with habitation near wildlife among those with no prior vaccination history contributing significantly to the twenty-fold increase in cases. Despite these warnings, it was still alarming when the ongoing monkeypox outbreak was first detected outside of its endemic region on May 7, 2022. It has now spread to over 106 countries with over 56,400 confirmed cases, as of September 8th.
As experts seek to uncover what led to the recent surge of monkeypox from its endemic region to a global concern, many are highlighting the global trends exacerbating the emergence and impact of infectious diseases. The monkeypox virus jumps to humans from animal reservoirs, and is then spread within humans via extended skin-to-skin contact or physical exposure to a contaminated surface like bedding, clothing, and bodily fluids. Trends in deforestation and climate change have put human populations and animal reservoirs in greater contact with one another.
Intersection with Climate and Ecological Security
Climate change and ecological degradation are contributing to a world in which infectious diseases are able to spread more rapidly and broadly. Rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns have increased the threat of water-borne illnesses and expanded the geographic range of some vector-borne diseases, including malaria, Zika, dengue fever, and West Nile fever. Once cooler regions are having to cope with novel diseases not historically within their domains.
Ecological disruption exacerbates these issues. Practices that put humans in closer contact with animals, including deforestation, poor agricultural management, and the encroachment of urban communities into wild spaces, make disease spillover from animal to human populations much more likely.
This heightened likelihood of disease spillover, along with a globally connected population which has little to no immunity against emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases, increases the possibility of multiple diseases reaching epidemic or pandemic levels: a situation that may stretch resources and health practitioners too thin to fully address multiple disease outbreaks simultaneously. Though we are not yet at the stage of two overlapping pandemics, this effect can already be seen: health systems have been under-staffed and under-supplied in the wake of COVID-19, leaving them less equipped to cope with the emergence of monkeypox.
Focusing on the intersections of climate, ecology, and human health will be crucial to find solutions that mitigate spillover events, manage future outbreaks, and reduce local, regional, and global fragility. This highlights the relevance of the One Health framework, an approach which acknowledges that resilience to biological threats depends on sustainable and healthy relationships across the entirety of human, animal, and environmental systems.
Justice and Equity Issues
Systemic issues regarding global health inequity and inequality have played a significant role in the prolonged monkeypox presence within Sub-Saharan Africa and the global response to the ongoing outbreak. Issues related to disease response in the Global South, public health messaging and stigmatization, and access to health care should be examined for their role in the current monkeypox outbreak and future disease emergence.
Nigerian scientists attempted to raise the alarm when they observed monkeypox behaving unusually in a 2017 outbreak, but were largely ignored. This is part of a larger trend: scientists in the Global South are not taken seriously when they raise concerns about infectious disease threats, and the health of individuals residing in these countries is undervalued and even disregarded. Rather than waiting to address disease outbreaks when they affect the Global North, resources and attention need to be put into halting diseases when and where they emerge. As of this writing, the African continent still does not have access to a single dose of monkeypox vaccine, highlighting severe health inequities that are all too familiar.
Some social scientists and public health experts have noted that mistakes made during the AIDS epidemic in the U.S. in the 1980s and 90s are being repeated. Early public health messaging concerning monkeypox focused exclusively on the community of men of who have sex with men, which created stigmatization and complications to care, as well as obfuscated the message that other communities are at risk of getting and transmitting the disease.
Monkeypox, and COVID before it, have further demonstrated the importance of the careful selection of disease names and narratives about outbreaks. Activists have noted that the name “monkeypox” has racist overtones and has increased negative narratives about the disease.
Much like water and food security, biosecurity impacts state legitimacy—inadequate or unfair responses and messaging in the face of disease outbreak erodes trust in government. This makes the adequate protection of health a key component of state resilience against fragility, especially in a climate-changed world.
CSR’s Upcoming Work
As the spread of monkeypox has made clear, the intersection between climatic, ecological, and biological threats requires immediate attention and action. Assessing the linkages and overlaps in these threat landscapes is critical to making meaningful progress in this space. In the coming months, CSR’s cross-cutting centers will be tackling this intersection, with a particular focus on understanding how prioritizing the ecological/biological nexus can advance security goals in both areas. Keep an eye out for our upcoming work on this crucial issue.
- BRIEFER: 100 Days of Monkeypox: Evaluating the U.S. Response to the Emerging Global Outbreak
- As the World Health Organization Meets on the 2022 Monkeypox Outbreak, an Early Examination of U.S. Responses
- The Nexus of Climate Change, Ecological Disruption, Stability, and Security
- Within the Health, Climate, and Security Nexus, Prevention is Better than a Cure