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Destabilization From ‘Within’: A “Termite Theory” of Climate’s Pathway to Violence
By Peter Schwartzstein
Edited by Tom Ellison
US Commercial Honeybee Crisis and National Security
A recent report by epidemiologists at Washington State University forecasts that commercial honeybee colony deaths could reach 70% in 2025 – compared to average annual losses between 40-50% in previous seasons. Although the exact cause is still unknown, scientists posit this collapse could be due to a range of factors including disease, pesticide use, invasive mites, and nutritional deficiencies. This is in sharp contrast to the same time last year, when US honeybee colonies reached a record high following decades of decline. The drastic change over less than one year demonstrates the volatility that will likely characterize the broader field of ecological security in the coming decades – especially when factors such as climate change, land use change, pesticides, and other disruptions cascade into one another.
(more…)Building a Sustainable World Bank Group Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence
By Siena Cicarelli, Erin Sikorsky, and Michael Werz
China Seizes an Opportunity from the United States in Humanitarian Aid and Disaster Response
In early March, former USAID China Advisor Francisco Bencosme warned that withdrawing disaster relief and food aid risked undermining the United States’ power and influence in the Pacific Region. Indeed, over the last month, the United States’ strategic competitors have begun to fill the $54+ billion aid shortfall caused by that retreat.
While the humanitarian toll of the USAID withdrawal is severe – fueling preventable deaths, global health risks, conflict, and inequality – it also threatens US national security interests. The dissolution of USAID has created a soft power vacuum in East Asia and the Indo-Pacific for China to easily fill.
The Chinese government has long used foreign aid and investments via the Belt and Road Initiative to gain strategic influence in Africa, Asia, and South America. However, it had to navigate existing US investments and partnerships. Now, with US resources gone, China has the opportunity to bolster its geostrategic interests – and outcompete the United States.
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