Late last year, the Chinese government announced its approval of a massive dam project along the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet. The dam is estimated to eventually generate more than three times the kilowatt hours as the Three Gorges Dam, currently the world’s largest hydroelectric power center. Beijing has not released any information regarding the technology to be utilized, the construction timeline, or other infrastructure details for the Medog Hydropower Station. The region is prone to earthquakes and vulnerable to diminishing glacial melt due to rising temperatures. At the same time, the dam would significantly alter river flow for downstream nations, India and Bangladesh, impacting fresh water supplies, ecosystem dynamics, and more.
In 2021, the Center for Climate and Security’s Melting Mountains, Mounting Tensions Report spotlighted the growing discord between India and China due to an intersection of pre-existing geopolitical disputes and climate impacts. The study identified the same river where the Medog Hydropower Station will be constructed, the Brahmaputra River, as a potential source of disagreement between the two nuclear nations. More specifically, even the perception of upstream water manipulation during extreme climate events could strain regional relations. The report states that “China’s lack of transparency in its dam projects on transboundary rivers, and severe distrust between the two rivals, create additional risks of misperception and attendant security tensions.” Therefore, any major dam project such as the Medog Station has the potential to significantly impact Chinese/Indian affairs.
As the project is developed, transparency on large-scale infrastructure plans, in addition to in-depth studies charting long-term regional impacts that incorporate climate change, will be critical for avoiding an increase in tensions and conflict.