As we look toward a new Administration in the United States, and the path forward on addressing the myriad threats in a rapidly-changing geostrategic landscape, it’s worth having a clearer understanding of how the U.S. national security community has come to its current level of concern about climate change. This concern didn’t happen overnight, or under a single administration. Rather, it’s the culmination of decades of assessments stretching back to the end of the Cold War.
In popular discourse, it’s often assumed that climate change is a brand new issue for the national security world – an interloping latecomer. The truth is that it’s not. The U.S. military has been concerned about climate change since the George W. Bush Administration, at the latest, but military institutions such as the Naval War College have been warning policy-makers since 1990, during the first Bush Administration. The intelligence community has also been in the game since the early 1990s, with the establishment of the MEDEA program – a structured collaboration between climate scientists and U.S. intelligence agencies – and has been releasing intelligence estimates on the national security implications of climate change since 2008, under the direction of then Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, Dr. Thomas Fingar.
To clarify the historical record on this subject, we are therefore posting below an updated chronology of US Department of Defense (DoD) and Intelligence Community (IC) products that explicitly address the climate change threat. A broader look at other national and international security documents addressing climate risks can be found on the Climate Security Chronology and Resource Hub.
Department of Defense
2016: 2016 Special Issue: Climate Change and Policy, Marine Corps University Journal
2016: DoD Directive 4715.21: Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience. U.S. Department of Defense
2016: Joint Publication 1-02: Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms. U.S. Department of Defense
2016: Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide, U.S. Department of Defense
2015: El Nino: Potential Asia Pacific Impacts: U.S. Pacific Command
2015: DoD Instruction 3200.21 “Sustaining Access to the Live Training Domain”: U.S. Department of Defense
2015: National Security Implications of Climate-Related Risks and a Changing Climate [Report to Congress on Geographic Combatant Command responses to climate risks], U.S. Department of Defense
2015: A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower, U.S. Department of the Navy/ United States Marine Corps, U.S. Coast Guard
2015: Department of Defense Annual Energy Management Report FY 2014, U.S. Department of Defense
2014: Department of Defense Strategic Sustainability Performance Plan FY2014, U.S. Department of Defense
2014: Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap, U.S. Department of Defense
2014: “National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change,” CNA Corporation
2014: USCENTCOM, Climate Change Assessment, QDR, U.S. Department of Defense
2014: Quadrennial Defense Review, U.S. Department of Defense
2014: US Navy Arctic Roadmap, U.S. Department of the Navy
2013: DoDM 4715.03, Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan (INRMP) Implementation Manual, Department of Defense
2013: US Coast Guard Arctic Strategy, U.S. Coast Guard
2013: SERDP, Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Military Installations: Policy Implications
2013: 2013 Addendum to the FY2012 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap: Department of Defense
2013: Arctic Strategy: Department of Defense
2013: OMB Scorecard on Sustainability/ Energy: Department of Defense
2012: Department of Defense FY 2012 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap: Department of Defense
2012: Department of Defense Strategic Sustainability and Performance Plan FY2012: Department of Defense
2011-2012: Key Strategic Issues List: U.S. Army War College
2011: DoDI 4715.03, Natural Resources Conservation Program: Department of Defense
2011: Department of Defense Strategic Sustainability Performance Plan FY2011: Department of Defense
2011: Incorporating Sea Level Change Considerations in Civil Works Programs: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
2011: Defense Science Board Task Force Report: Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security: Department of Defense
2011: The National Military Strategy of the United States of America: Redefining America’s Military Leadership: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
2011: National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces: Naval Studies Board, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
2010: Quadrennial Defense Review Report: Department of Defense
2010: The Joint Operating Environment, Ready for Today, Preparing for Tomorrow: United States Joint Forces Command
2010: Climate Change Impacts and AFRICOM: A Briefing Note: Institute for Defense Analyses, Christine Youngblut
2010: Strategic Sustainability and Performance Plan FY2010: Department of Defense
2010: U.S. Navy Climate Change Road Map: Task Force Climate Change, Department of the Navy
2009: DoDI 40170.11, Installation Energy Management: Department of Defense
2009: US Navy Arctic Roadmap: U.S. Department of the Navy
2009: Taking Up the Security Challenge of Climate Change: U.S. Army War College
2009: Climate Change Effects: Issues for International and US National Security: Institute for Defense Analyses, Christine Youngblut
2009: Two Degrees of Separation: Abrupt Climate Change and the Adverse Impact to US National Security: Air Command and Staff College
2008: National Defense Strategy: Department of Defense
2008: The Joint Operating Environment, Trends and Challenges for the Future Joint Force Through 2030: United States Joint Forces Command
2007: A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Sea Power: Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps and the Coast Guard
2007: National Security and the Threat of Climate Change: CNA Military Advisory Board
2003: An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security: DoD Office of Net Assessment
2003: Weather Operations in the Transformation Era. John M. Lanicci, Air War College Maxwell Paper No. 29 (Maxwell AFB: Air University Press 2003)
2003: Global Warming Could Have a Chilling Effect on the Military. National Defense University
1990: Global Climate Change Implications for the United States: U.S. Navy War College
Intelligence Community
2016: National Intelligence Council: Memorandum – Implications for US National Security of Anticipated Climate Change
2016: Director of National Intelligence: “Statement for the Record, Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, Senate Armed Services Committee.”
2015: Director of National Intelligence: “Statement for the Record, Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, Senate Armed Services Committee.”
2014: The National Intelligence Strategy of the United States of America
2014: Director of National Intelligence: “Statement for the Record, Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.”
2013: National Intelligence Council Report: “Natural Resources in 2020, 2030, and 2040: Implications for the United States.” (July 25)
2013: Director of National Intelligence: “Statement for the Record, Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence”
2013: Director of National Intelligence: “Remarks as delivered by James R. Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, Worldwide Threat Assessment to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence”
2012: National Intelligence Council: “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds”
2012: National Research Council: “Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis,” commissioned by the Central Intelligence Agency
2012: DNI Intelligence Community Assessment, “Global Water Security”
2012: Climate Extremes: Recent Trends With Implications for National Security, Harvard University, funded by the Central Intelligence Agency
2011: DNI Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
2010: DNI Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community
2009: DNI Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community
2009: The National Intelligence Strategy of the United States of America
2009: National Intelligence Council: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030. Commissioned Research and Conference Reports
– China: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 (NIC-2009-02D)
– India: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 (NIC-2009-03D)
– Russia: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 (NIC-2009-04D)
– Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 (NIC-2009-06D)
– North Africa: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 (NIC-2009-07D)
– Mexico, The Caribbean, and Central America: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 (NIC-2009-11D)
2008: National Intelligence Assessment (NIA) on the National Security Implications of Climate Change to 2030. Statement for the Record of Dr. Thomas Fingar, Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis and Chairman of the National Intelligence Council. House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming.
1993: MEDEA program established
