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The Russian Heat Wave Revisited: More Evidence of a Climate Link

Last October, we highlighted a study by Rahmstorf and Coumou which, through utilizing a Monte Carlo simulation, found that the Russian heat wave of 2010 had an 80% likelihood of being attributed to a long-term climatic warming trend. The finding was significant because it seemed to contradict an earlier study by Dole et al, highlighted by Andrew Revkin of the New York Times, that did not find evidence of a climate change link, and thus asserted that the link did not exist. This was, in the words of Rahmstorf and Coumou, a case of confusing “an absence of evidence” with “evidence of absence.” (more…)

Rolling the Dice Over Russia: Climate Change and the 2010 Heat Wave

Łukasz 'Loukas' LiniewiczA new study by Rahmstorf and Coumou makes an explicit link between climate change and Western Russia’s long, brutal heat wave of July 2010, which caused numerous deaths, plunged Moscow into a sea of smog, and decimated the country’s wheat crops (leading officials to ban all grain exports). The study is significant as it contradicts earlier findings by Dole et al that seems to have confused, in Rahmstorf’s words, “an absence of evidence,” with “evidence of absence.” The authors assert that the “2010 Moscow heat record is, with 80% probability, due to the long-term climatic warming trend.” (more…)

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