By Siena Cicarelli, Luca Cinciripini, and Chiara Scissa
From May 12-14, the Nexus25 team attended the 2025 Stockholm Forum on Peace and Development. This year’s forum focused on “Rethinking Peace and the Future of Security,” with sessions dedicated to resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict, the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan, enhancing youth engagement, avenues for dialogue in the Sahel region, advancing gender equity, and more. As part of these discussions, Nexus25 hosted a session entitled “Leader or Left Behind? The EU in a Euro-Mediterranean Polycrisis,” a combined panel discussion and scenario exercise focused on the EU’s response to converging risks in its immediate neighborhood.
Migration, insecurity, and climate change have left the Euro-Mediterranean region (EU and MENA states in the Mediterranean Basin) in a polycrisis – just as the United States and Europe slash foreign aid budgets. Crucially, projections from the World Bank that MENA countries will host the world’s largest proportion of internal climate migrants pose a major challenge for a region already characterized by armed conflicts, escalating political tensions, and instability. In this context, this session explored policy shifts needed for a more resilient EU, how to manage risk pathways, and areas for expanded partnerships in this new geopolitical environment.
After hearing from regional experts including Dr. Alaa Tartir (SIPRI), Dr. Beatrice Mosello (adelphi), and Dr. Chiara Scissa (IAI), session participants engaged in a 2030 backcasting exercise to challenge their underlying assumptions about the complex crises to come. This exercise identified several urgent policy challenges for the EU, including the management of food production and waste, developing a cohesive geo-economic approach, anticipating water scarcity, and managing an aging population.
In light of the panel discussion and backcasting exercise, key takeaways from the session included:
- The Euro-Mediterranean region faces accelerating – and bidirectional – climate risks. As the region warms twice as fast as the Earth, it will have to contend with converging biodiversity, energy, migration, and conflict pathways. Therefore, the EU must not let investments in “hard security” detract from the broader resilience-building in the region.
- The EU must take questions about its legitimacy as a development actor seriously, given that the legacy of colonialism and previous interventions have significantly lowered trust towards Europe, particularly in Africa. As the EU continues to engage in soul searching about its broader role and political will to manage crises, it’s worthwhile to define what the EU is a leader in.
- The EU must be more open and honest about its toolbox – and selective willingness to take international humanitarian law seriously. The disparity in the response to Ukraine versus other ongoing crises like Gaza and The Sahel fuels claims that there is an inconsistent standard for who receives aid and support. However, if the EU is going to step up as a leader in building resilience – especially in the Euro-Mediterranean region – it will need to do so in a way that is more consistent with its core values.
- As a whole, European partners must be more willing to confront the United States and stand up for their core interests. The transatlantic partnership will likely evolve into more of a transactional relationship than one based on shared norms and values, requiring the EU to take a more assertive stance in engagements with American partners on trade, international partnerships, conflict resolution, and climate change.
Overall, the panel discussion and scenario exercise emphasized that as the United States steps back from international development and humanitarian aid, now is the time for the EU to become “not just a payer, but a player” in the field. Long-term resilience requires not just financial contributions, but better policies for all aspects of the nexus, including climate change, food security, demographic shifts, and migration.
Nexus25 is a joint project of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Rome and the Center for Climate and Security (CCS) in Washington, DC. The project, led by Dr. Nathalie Tocci at IAI, Erin Sikorsky at CCS and Dr. Michael Werz at the Center for American Progress (CAP), is funded by Stiftung Mercator in Germany. This event summary was prepared by Siena Cicarelli, Luca Cinciripini, and Chiara Scissa.
For additional information please visit https://www.nexus25.org or contact the Nexus25 team at info@nexus25.org.