This piece was originally published at UPenn’s Perry World House as part of their 2023 Global Order Colloquium.
Introduction
As each summer passes warmer than the last, and the urgency toward cutting carbon emissions grows, there is increasing demand for an “all options on the table” approach to the transition away from fossil fuels. To that end, few serious net-zero scenarios exclude nuclear power. For example, in most of the scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report 1.5, the IPCC models an increase in nuclear power—ranging from a 59 percent to 106 percent increase by 2030, depending on the model. For its part, in its Net Zero by 2050 roadmap, the International Energy Agency (IEA) calls for a doubling of nuclear power generation from 2020 to 2050, with “with construction of new plants needed in all countries that are open to the technology.”
These ambitious pathways come at a time of innovation in nuclear energy as well such as small modular nuclear reactors, an increased role for additive manufacturing and new fuels that can perform more efficiently at higher temperatures, as well as more accident-tolerant fuels.
Despite higher demand signals and new, potentially revolutionary nuclear technologies, the path forward for robust nuclear energy deployment is bumpy. Continued high costs and public skepticism are just two hurdles. Another challenging hurdle is climate change itself. As temperatures rise and climate hazards, such as drought, sea level rise, and extreme precipitation intensify, nuclear infrastructure is put at risk. At the same time, indirect, compound risks of climate change, such as political instability and increased geopolitical competition, also threaten the expanded, safe deployment of new nuclear energy technologies.