Two New Conflict and Mass Atrocity Prediction Tools

Two new programs of note have been developed to help predict conflict and mass atrocities internationally. One, the Global Conflict Tracker (available already here), is from the Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Preventive Action, and the other, an open source algorithm designed to help predict the likelihood of mass atrocities, was developed for USAID and Humanity United as part of a “tech challenge for atrocity prevention.”  It is not immediately clear how, or if, factors such as climate change or water, food and energy security are incorporated into either of these tools, but additional prediction capabilities, and interest in preventing conflict and mass atrocity before it starts, are steps in the right direction.

From the Council on Foreign Relations:

“We are excited to announce the launch of the Center for Preventive Action’s new interactive guide to U.S. conflict prevention priorities in 2014. The Global Conflict Tracker is based upon the findings of our Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS), which evaluates ongoing and potential conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring in 2014 and their impact on U.S. interests.” Continue reading…

From USAID and Humanity United as reported by Co.Exist:

“A new algorithm developed for USAID and the nonprofit group Humanity United can now mine a huge database of news reports to predict where groups should focus their attentions, down to the state, city, or regional level. Developed by Xiaoshi Li of Beijing, a data scientist who took the top $12,000 prize in the organizations’ Tech Challenge for Atrocity Prevention, the model takes 23 factors into account to make predictions.” Continue reading…