By Tom Ellison
As previously covered by the Center for Climate and Security (CCS), the intersection of climate change and misinformation is not only a barrier to science-based climate and energy policy but also a growing challenge to peace and security. The problem is diverse and intensifying, from extremists and autocratic governments exploiting climate-driven disasters to propagandize, to xenophobic actors mobilizing against climate-driven migrants, to conspiracy theorists and attention economy grifters invoking climate policies in multifaceted justifications for extremism or authoritarianism.
In recent months, climate mis- and disinformation have received increased research and diplomatic attention. In June, the International Panel on the Information Environment (IPIE) released the first global, systematic review of scientific knowledge on the sources, content, channels, audiences, impacts, and solutions of climate misinformation. The IPIE is the leading scientific body on the information environment. The report catalogues knowledge on climate disinformation’s economically and politically powerful sources, message diversity from “skepticism” to outwardly fringe conspiracy theories, its wide-ranging media channels and audiences, and its perverse impacts on public trust and climate policy. It also highlights the gap in climate misinformation research on less wealthy, Global South contexts, with 70 studies on the US alone compared to one for the entire continent of Africa.
Meanwhile, in March, Brazil hosted the first Climate Information Integrity Summit as part of the Global Initiative for Information Integrity on Climate Change, which Brazil is co-leading with the United Nations ahead of hosting the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in November. The initiative is a first-of-its-kind multilateral state and NGO partnership to fund research and action combating climate-related mis and disinformation. That said, government endorsement so far is limited to Brazil, Chile, Denmark, France, Morocco, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.
At the same time, worrying trends highlight that progress on these topics is more urgent than ever. In the US political realm, the Trump Administration is hamstringing both climate information integrity and broader counter-disinformation efforts. Alongside steps to purge climate policymaking at key agencies, the White House has hobbled or eliminated sources of credible public climate information, from the National Climate Assessment to the US government’s public climate information site to NOAA and FEMA science to US participation in the UN’s climate science panel. President Trump himself continues to propagate disinformation about climate change impacts, such as false claims blaming California state water and fishing policy for Los Angeles’ devastating wildfires, or inaccurate allegations that FEMA hurricane relief money is diverted to undocumented immigrants. Meanwhile, the Administration has taken aim at broader counter-disinformation initiatives it perceives as at odds with its agenda. Following an executive order decrying counter-mis/disinformation efforts, in April, the State Department shuttered its Global Engagement Center (GEC). The GEC’s responsibilities included countering disinformation from Russia and China, both of whom have spread disinformation about climate-related issues.
Meanwhile, other examples highlight troubling technological developments. In June, xAI and Tesla CEO Elon Musk signalled his desire to retrain new models of xAI’s chatbot Grok–which has already been adjusted to indulge in climate denial and white supremacist talking points–to give answers perceived to be less “biased,” including on climate change and other topics often paired with climate disinformation, such as vaccines, refugees, and far right violence. In Canada, the day before elections in April, a deepfake video showing Prime Minister Mark Carney making fabricated pledges to phase out older, high-emitting vehicles spread to millions. Over the past year, 500 Canadian municipalities have received a deluge of polished AI-generated emails citing climate misinformation to advocate against net-zero policies. The source was an organization named to mimic a credible environmental organization, and founded by a Canadian anti-COVID-vaccine activist who endorses claims that climate policies are a pretext for the United Nations to establish a socialist one-world government. Combined with backpedaling by social media companies on content moderation, these examples portend increasing challenges from tech-enabled climate disinformation that weaken social cohesion and give openings for extremist or foreign meddling.
These challenges highlight the daunting task ahead of work on climate, disinformation, and security. To adequately tackle the topic, work on climate and misinformation should:
- Consider the implications of climate misinformation alongside security and geopolitics, which have not yet been a focus of the UN and IPIE’s work. This requires a broad view comprising not only mis/disinformation about climate change, but mis/disinformation prompted by climate change impacts and policies.
- Tailor questions to the varying context and state of knowledge in different countries. For example, climate misinformation research abounds in the US and Europe, but key questions on intersections with disasters, foreign influence, polarization, and democracy remain inadequately answered. Meanwhile, a wider array of questions remains unanswered in non-English-speaking low—and middle-income countries, where climate security dynamics are broadly underappreciated.
- Consider climate change misinformation in concert with broader trends in technology, geopolitics, and the wider information environment.
- Work via a variety of audiences and partners, given the relative strengths and relevance of the United Nations, national governments, subnational officials, private sector companies and regulators, civil society organizations, and the public.
In May, CCS launched a new project with the generous support of The John S. and James L. Knight Foundation to explore one key facet of this challenge, producing research and foresight exercises to better equip US civic leaders dealing with natural disasters and information challenges. CCS is eager to continue expanding its work on these issues as challenges at the nexus of climate change, mis/disinformation, and security evolve.