Andrew Freedman at Climate Central looks at two newly published global studies, one by Coumou and Rahmstorf in Nature Climate Change, and another by Kevin Trenberth in Climatic Change, showing “strong” observable evidence of the “relationship between extreme weather events and global climate change.”
We discussed a previous Coumou and Rahmstorf paper in a recent blog, “The Russian Heat Wave Revisited: Evidence of a Climate Link,” which utilized a Monte Carlo simulation to determine a quite high probability that the 2010 Russian heat wave was linked to climate change (80% likelihood, to be precise). That finding was bolstered by a subsequent multi-model study conducted by Allen et al, which also concluded that the Russian heat wave in question “[is] likely attributable to anthropogenic climate change,” though the probability was slightly lower.
While we’re talking probabilities and certainties, this seems like a good place to quote former Army chief of staff, General. Gordon R. Sullivan:
People are saying they want to be perfectly convinced about climate science projections…But speaking as a soldier, we never have 100 percent certainty. If you wait until you have 100 percent certainty, something bad is going to happen on the battlefield.
While it’s not something we wish for, most climate projections suggest that it’s likely we may see more of such findings as the climate change clock keeps ticking, and a robust global solution remains out of sight.